#14:213(#2:21,35) “The tale of 100 dogs and 95 bones”（＆5:69）
https://nam-students.blogspot.com/2019/06/14213-tale-of-100-dogs-and-92-bones.html
モズレーもミッチェルも95本の骨を職に喩えている
原案:Philip Harvey
参考：
参考：
https://youtu.be/2vTjLwYCi24 元動画 1:18
#5:69
Saturday Quiz – March 13, 2010 – answers and discussion
2013/3/13
#14:213 “The tale of 100 dogs and 95 bones”
“The parable of 100 dogs and 92 bones” – Why the Work ...
In it he includes his 'parable of 100 dogs and 92 bones'. I've used this before on this blog, but this is a ...
Training does not equal jobs! – Bill Mitchell – Modern Monetary Theory
Each day as the 100 dogs go in search of 95 bones, we start to observe different dogs coming back ...
How Dog Bones Explain the Economy | The New Republic
How Dog Bones Explain the Economy ... If a dog is too small or too old to win his own bone, what's the point in ... truck operator is dropping off 88 bones, and there are 100 dogs.
The Tale of 100 dogs and 95 bones - Centre of Full Employment and ...
The Tale of 100 dogs and 95 bones. nce upon a time there was a small community comprising 100 dog bone-winners ...
Training does not equal jobs!
There is a parable that the Australian Government still doesn’t understand – its the 100 dogs and 95 bones story that all children should be told at an early age. I will tell the story presently. I mention the parable because once again it seems that a major Government initiative designed to reduce disadvantage arising from unemployment will be poorly conceived and constrained by a reluctance of the Government to jettison the destructive neo-liberal approach that has dominated labour market policy for the last few decades. I am referring to today’s announcement from the Government that our youth will all be working, studying or training or face a loss of income support.
The Governmental leaders (via the Council of Australian Governments) today finally gave us their answer to youth unemployment. Its all supply-side and will fail to do anything much more than add coercion to the stress of joblessness.
The Governmental leaders (via the Council of Australian Governments) today finally gave us their answer to youth unemployment. Its all supply-side and will fail to do anything much more than add coercion to the stress of joblessness.
The Government announced that any Australian under the age of 25 will from now on be “either working, studying or training”. While all 15-17 year olds will be required to be working, training or in school, all 17-20 year olds who are unemployed must also be either training or undertaking some form of study. The training places will be designed to “make the youth more employable”. So this is the full employability approach which is not the same thing as a full employment commitment.
To qualify for youth allowance, anyone under 20 years of age who did not complete Year 12 will have to be studying or in a training program. These conditions will also extend to their parents if they wish to qualify for Family Tax Benefit A. So I guess they are planning to continue to use the “breaching skills” that Centrelink and its privatised partners – the Job Network – built up and perfected under the previous regime to further penalise our disadvantaged citizens!
Where did they get this nonsense from? Well, in the OECD Jobs for Youth: Australia report which I have already discussed in the blog – OECD is at it again! – it is claimed that we should re-focus our secondary education system to increase retention rates up to Year 12 rather than set a minimum school-leaving age. The Report recommended that: (a) the youth allowance be made conditional on having attained, or committing to attain, secondary school qualifications; and (b) more vocational education and training courses and apprenticeships be run through secondary schools.
Anyway, it seems as though our leaders have been reading the OECD report because they are now following it lock-step. The Federal Government claims that it will reciprocate with a youth guarantee. But it isn’t much of a guarantee at all. They are merely guaranteeing “training” and presumably suppressing the labour force data to understate the unemployment rate. The unemployed will be now classified as “in training”.
They are using all the supply-side rhetoric that has dominated the policy debate for years – “need to lift their skills to make them more employable” – and which has been associated with high and persistent levels of labour underutilisation.
The supply-side approach has not worked! When will they understand that? More later in the blog.
The impact will be to degrade our educational institutions (secondary schools) further, by turning them into training centres for the capitalist sector. This is more or less what the so-called reforms of the tertiary education sector did in the late 1980s under the previous Labor regime. They forced an amalgamation between the educators (Universities) and the vocational training institutions (College of Advanced Education, Teachers’ Colleges and Technical Schools) and have compromised both elements of skill development as a consequence.
The plan also sets a national target Year 12 retention rate of 90 per cent by 2015. This has brought their Year 12 target forward five years from those announced previously.
What are the current Year 12 retention rates? The following graph shows Year 7/8 to 12 retention rates for indigenous and non-indigenous Australians from 1998 to 2008. The overall average is around 74 per cent. We rank 23rd in a list of 35 OECD countries for the number of students who complete Year 12. So there is a lot of improvement required in 6 years! As an aside, does their goal refer to the average or for all groups. You can see that while indigenous children have significantly increased their Year 12 retention rates since 1998, they would have to have to double their current rates to reach the 90 per cent target. That is not possible by 2015.
The problem goes deeper than this though. More than 20 per cent of 15 to 24 year olds in Australia are not in full time work or education. Further, more young Australians work than in most of the other OECD countries. Our school drop-out rates for under 16 year olds is higher than the OECD average (14.7 per cent compared to 12.9 per cent).
We have set up policy structures in this country that systematically waste our youth and undermine their potential and future prospects.
The problem for the Australian education system starts much earlier than the latter years of secondary school. We perform relatively poorly when compared to other advanced countries with respect to early childhood education where participation is low. The low participation rates are compounded by the low government spending in this area. The following graph is taken from the OECD’s Report Economic survey of Australia 2008: Enhancing educational performance. It shows the children aged 4 and under as a per cent of the population aged 3 to 4 in 2006. It speaks for itself.
The appalling policy performance in Australia impacts most on children from disadvantaged homes because their parents cannot afford early childhood care. The research evidence is clear – disadvantage is significantly reduced if children participate in well structured early childhood programs. The lack of investment in early childhood care is also exacerbated by our primitive approach to child care and parental leave which are both causalities of our neo-liberal wind back in the public sector and the wasteful surpluses that the previous regime saw fit to inflict upon the nation.
Unfortunately, to lift rates to 90 per cent will require significant changes to early childhood education and primary schooling. The current commitment by the Government to the previous regime’s punitive approach to public education and the massive subsidies to private schooling will not provide that investment and focus. The planning must start now and it will take around 13-15 years to turn the problem around. Very little impact will be noticed by 2015.
The parable of 100 dogs and 95 bones
The main reason that the supply-side approach is flawed is because it fails to recognise that unemployment arises when there are not enough jobs created to match the preferences of the willing labour supply. The research evidence is clear – churning people through training programs divorced from the context of the paid-work environment is a waste of time and resources and demoralises the victims of the process – the unemployed.
Imagine a small community comprising 100 dogs. Each morning they set off into the field to dig for bones. If there enough bones for all buried in the field then all the dogs would succeed in their search no matter how fast or dexterous they were.
Now imagine that one day the 100 dogs set off for the field as usual but this time they find there are only 95 bones buried.
Some dogs who were always very sharp dig up two bones as usual and others dig up the usual one bone. But, as a matter of accounting, at least 5 dogs will return home bone-less.
Now imagine that the government decides that this is unsustainable and decides that it is the skills and motivation of the bone-less dogs that is the problem. They are not “boneable” enough.
So a range of dog psychologists and dog-trainers are called into to work on the attitudes and skills of the bone-less dogs. The dogs undergo assessment and are assigned case managers. They are told that unless they train they will miss out on their nightly bowl of food that the government provides to them while bone-less. They feel despondent.
Anyway, after running and digging skills are imparted to the bone-less dogs things start to change. Each day as the 100 dogs go in search of 95 bones, we start to observe different dogs coming back bone-less. The bone-less queue seems to become shuffled by the training programs.
However, on any particular day, there are still 100 dogs running into the field and only 95 bones are buried there!
You can find pictorial version of the parable here (for international readers this version was very geared to labour market policy under the previous federal regime in Australia and was written around 2001).
Conclusion
If the Government was really serious about a youth guarantee then it would provide work for all those who did not want to stay at school and integrate skill development within that paid-work context.
It would also provide public sector jobs to all the over 55 year olds who have lost their jobs and set up mentoring relationships between the experienced older workers and the young inexperienced workers. All of this can be done within a Job Guarantee scheme run by the Federal Government. Then you would start to get dividends from the training and output from the workers. As it is you will get very little that is worthwhile – but lots of angst.
Britain continues to look like a failed state
Last week, the UK Department of Work and Pensions released a swathe of new – statistics – on poverty rates in Britain. While the Department tried as hard as it could to present the data in a misleading way and lied the facts, once analysed properly, are chilling indeed for a nation that pretends to be advanced and lectures Europe on its own misanthropic policy positions. I am sometimes asked when making public presentations how I judge the success or otherwise of public policy. I respond with a simple rule of thumb. The benchmark is not how rich the policy framework makes society in general but how rich it makes the poor! The conduct of governments in many nations over the last 20 years has not typified what a sophisticated and rich society should be doing to enhance the prospects of the weakest among us. The policies of the British government in recent years are the antithesis of sound public policy. In that sense, I judge Britain to be a failed state.
First, recall this story in the Economist (April 25, 2013) – Fixing the figures – which documented how the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in the UK, Iain Duncan Smith has been pumping “questionable numbers” out of his office “into the public debate like raw sewage”.
First, recall this story in the Economist (April 25, 2013) – Fixing the figures – which documented how the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in the UK, Iain Duncan Smith has been pumping “questionable numbers” out of his office “into the public debate like raw sewage”.
To try to put some positive spin on the British government’s avowed austerity policy which is pushing thousands of people (including 1 in 6 children) into poverty, the Secretary of State and his spinners have been misrepresenting the DWP data.
On April 24, 2013, the Secretary of State released the annual report – Social Justice: transforming lives – one year on – published by the Department of Work and Pensions.
In the forward to the Report, he wrote:
Around one million people have been stuck on a working-age benefit for at least three out of the past four years, despite being judged capable of preparing or looking for work.
The British Tabloid press had a field day with the Secretary of State’s release producing lurid headlines and by-lines leaving the reader in no doubt that the latest data from DWP had found a bevy of bludgers who were living it up on government pensions when they could easily be out there working.
Even the sycophantic (to neo-liberalism) British Labour Party was quoted via MP Liam Byrne issued a – Statement – saying “we need to get these people off benefits and into jobs.” As if the claims by Duncan Smith were accurate.
This was in the context of the Labour Party’s compulsory Jobs Guarantee proposal. I support a Job Guarantee (but not the British Labour Party’s model) but realise that it would only work for those who are fit to work. If a person is not capable of working then they deserve as a right of citizenship (and a member of the human race) to be supported in a manner by the rest of us such that they are not socially excluded.
So the Labour Party was buying into the Duncan Smith narrative and claiming to have a niftier way of getting the bludgers to work and off the job seekers allowance.
The Full Fact site (which aims to promote accuracy in public debate) asked the question on April 24, 2013 – Are a million people fit to work yet living on benefits?.
It found that the evidence provided in the official DWP statistics do not support such a claim.
The UK Guardian (April 24, 2013) – Is Britain a nation of lazy scroungers? – also did some checking and found that:
… about 1 million spent three to four years on benefits. However, 600,000 of these claimants are people not able to work – by the government’s own definition.
The Guardian also noted that:
Duncan Smith is employing a linguistic sleight of hand. He says he is only counting those on working-age benefits who are “judged capable of preparing or looking for work”. But almost everyone’s capable of preparing for work.So the only people who are capable of looking for work, who Duncan Smith must think have been unwittingly fostering a sense of dependence on the state, are the 395,000 people who found themselves unemployed in March 2012 and had spent between three to four years beforehand on benefits.
But I would have gone further than the Guardian – rather than conceding the last point.
The latest Office of National Statistics data to construct the UV ratio is available – HERE.
The following graph shows the UV ratio since 2001 (up to the March-quarter 2013). In the March-quarter 2013, there were 2.5 millions workers unemployed in the UK with only 503 thousand unfilled vacancies.
You will also note that the ratio jumped sharply in early 2009 as aggregate demand crashed in the UK and real output plunged.
As a note for those inexperienced in dealing with economic data, when I see sudden jumps in a time series that has exhibited relative stability for a lengthy period I am looking for a shock to help me explain the jump.
Shocks can either be demand-side or supply-side in origin (although one can feed into the other quickly enough). To be consistent with the neo-liberal claim that there are a million bludgers out there over the last four years one would expect to see some notable shift in the income support entitlements around 2008-09 which induced such a supply shift (as evidenced in the data).
No such evidence is forthcoming. What we know (unambiguously) is that the British economy encountered a massive negative demand shock which drove the output gap up and unemployment along with it.
The persistence of that output gap, now being perpetuated by the Government’s own policy stance, is locking people into entrenched unemployment.
The other part of this narrative is that the vacancy rate has fallen dramatically since the crisis began. Vacancies are now 26 per cent per cent lower than were in December 2007 (the most recent peak).
Remember my epithet – The unemployed cannot find jobs that are not there!.
And never forget the following Case Study.
Case study: the parable of 100 dogs and 92 bones
Imagine a small community comprising 100 dogs. Each morning they set off into the field to dig for bones. If there enough bones for all buried in the field then all the dogs would succeed in their search no matter how fast or dexterous they were.
Now imagine that one day the 100 dogs set off for the field as usual but this time they find there are only 92 bones buried.
Some dogs who were always very sharp dig up two bones as usual and others dig up the usual one bone. But, as a matter of accounting, at least 8 dogs will return homebone-less.
Now imagine that the government decides that this is unsustainable and decides that it is the skills and motivation of the bone-less dogs that is the problem. They are not skilled enough. They are idlers, bludgers and “bone-shy”.
So a range of dog psychologists and dog-trainers are called into to work on the attitudes and skills of the bone-less dogs. The dogs undergo assessment and are assigned case managers. They are told that unless they train they will miss out on their nightly bowl of food that the government provides to them while bone-less. They feel despondent.
Anyway, after running and digging skills are imparted to the bone-less dogs things start to change. Each day as the 100 dogs go in search of 92 bones, we start to observe different dogs coming back bone-less. The bone-less queue seems to become shuffled by the training programs.
However, on any particular day, there are still 100 dogs running into the field and only 92 bones are buried there!
You can find pictorial version of the parable here (for international readers this version was very geared to labour market policy under the previous federal regime in Australia and was written around 2001). I first screened this at a presentation that preceded a talk by Tony Abbot, the then Federal Employment Minister now Opposition leader gave at the University as my guest.
You can find pictorial version of the parable here (for international readers this version was very geared to labour market policy under the previous federal regime in Australia and was written around 2001). I first screened this at a presentation that preceded a talk by Tony Abbot, the then Federal Employment Minister now Opposition leader gave at the University as my guest.
In the UK there are about 92 bones for every 100 dogs and in Spain 72 bones for every 100 dogs!
The point is that fallacies of composition are rife in mainstream macroeconomics reasoning and have led to very poor policy decisions in the past.
There are simply not enough jobs.
More recently, the DWP published their latest poverty data – Households Below Average Income (HBAI) – which bears scrutiny.
The full publication – Households Below Average Income (HBAI) 1994/95-2011/12 – was published on June 13, 2013.
I will leave it to you to learn about how the different measures are computed and what they can be legitimately used for. The publication explains in some detail with references to external sources of information these matters.
An acknowledged measure of poverty is the threshold – 60 per cent of Households Below
Average Income (HBAI).
Average Income (HBAI).
1. “someone is considered to be in relative low income if they receive less than 60 per cent of the average income”.
2. “someone is considered to be in absolute low income if they receive less than 60 per cent of average income1 in 2010/11 adjusted by inflation”.
We learn that:
1. “Average income decreased by 3 per cent in 2011/12 in real terms compared with 2010/11, similar to the decrease in 2010/11.”
2. “The percentage of individuals in relative low income, Before Housing Costs (BHC), was 16 per cent … unchanged from 2010/11 … because, in the main, real incomes for households near the bottom of the income distribution fell by roughly the same rate as real incomes for households at the average”. That is, widespread real losses.
The other significant aspect here is that the overall decline in average real income biases the poverty measures downwards. A simple calculation shows, for example, that if the average income from 2010-11 was used instead of the current year, then poverty rates rise sharply.
3. “… the population falling into absolute low income rose”.
4. “income inequality is now at levels last seen in the middle of the last decade having reached historic highs in recent years”.
The really frightening aspect of the data release related to the rising incidence of child poverty in the UK, which is covered in Chapter 4 of the publication.
We learn that (BHC = Before Housing Costs):
The percentage of children in absolute low income BHC increased by 2 percentage points, or 300,000 children, between 2010/11 and 2011/1219. This was the first percentage point increase since the early 1990s, BHC. The recent increase was driven by a reduction in real terms income. The absolute low income threshold was uprated by RPI inflation and so the population falling into low income increased.
Apropos of Point 2 (immediately) above, the Report presents Tables for benchmarks against “contemporary median income” and 2010-11 median income, to allow us to assess the impact of generalised real income declines are having on these measures at the bottom of the income distribution.
So the proportion of UK children living below 60 per cent of the contemporary median income was 27 per cent in both 2010-11 and 2011-12 and the proportion below 70 per cent was a static 37 per cent across both years.
However, when we calibrate against median income in 2010-11, the proportion of UK children living below 60 per cent of the median income rose from 27 per cent to 29 per cent in 2011-12 and the proportion below 70 per cent rose from 37 per cent to 39 per cent.
So in terms of absolute numbers, using contemporary 2011-12 median income as the benchmark there were 3.5 million children below 60 per cent and 4.8 million below 70 per cent.
Using 2010-11 real median income, the numbers were 3.8 and 5.1 million children, respectively in these categories.
Thus, when we consider the overall loss of real income, there were more than 300,000 British children entering absolute poverty in 2011-12 compared to 2010-11 (below 60 per cent).
The other finding that is of interest is that 63 per cent of children below the 60 per cent threshold are living in households where at least one adult is employed. If one examines earlier data, the conclusion is that the incidence of the working poor has risen dramatically since the mid-1990s. In 1996-97, this proportion was around 43 per cent.
The financial crisis and austerity drive has seen the acceleration in working poor households
The Report says that:
For children in workless families, the risk of being in relative low income reduced by 2 percentage points to 40 per cent between 2010/11 and 2011/12, BHC and by 1 percentage point to 67 per cent, AHC … because these workless families received a higher proportion of their income from state support than families with children who had at least one adult in work.
The Report consistently highlights the fact that higher levels of state support reduce the risk of child poverty among the unemployed, which means that attacks on income support schemes push more children into poverty.
Neo-liberalism began by increasing the unemployment pool to shift the balance of power away from workers so that capital could secure increasing shares of the real income generated.
The related phase has been to denigrate the unemployed and attack their income support.
The other prong in the strategy has been to impoverish those who work in the lower-paid occupations. This phase is in full swing.
The related phase is to extend that attack into what has typically been referred to as the middle-class – the 40-80 percentiles of the income distribution.
The neo-liberals are using the current crisis to wipe out the middle class. The only problem is that a significant proportion of that cohort are well-educated and will probably resist the demolition attempts.
At that point, perhaps some class consciousness will emerge and those in their McMansions will realise the bludgers they have been vilifying each time the Daily Telegraph or Daily Mail (or whatever Tabloid is relevant in the particular nation) claims there are millions who can work who refuse to, are more like them than that thought.
All cohorts are being impoverished at different rates.
Conclusion
The DWP datasets are very rich in detail and fascinating (once you suspend anger and misery for a while). They indicate to me that the current policy framework is severely undermining not only the current fortunes of people in Britain, but also, the future prosperity of the nation.
The intergenerational disadvantage is becoming worse and the children in poverty today are the low productivity workers of the future who inherit the disadvantages of their parents.
The evidence is very clear – children denied a chance to realise their potential tend to lead difficult lives with unstable work attachments (even when there are jobs on offer), unstable family lives, and higher incidence of drug and alcohol abuse, mental ill-health and other pathologies.
When the neo-liberals lecture us constantly about the burden that government debt will (allegedly) place on the grand kids and the need for surpluses to “save up” to accommodate the demands of an ageing population, they ignore the most obvious.
Apart from completely misunderstanding the monetary side of the discussion, before their very eyes are growing number of future workers losing attachment with society by being denied adequate education and training and the hope that impels us to achieve higher attainments.
Sure enough the grand children are going to bear a dreadful burden and the future is bleak enough – but that is all the making of the neo-liberal policies.
That is enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2013 Bill Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.
Historical Archive
Note: adjust the quantity of bones to calibrate with the national unemployment rate
nce upon a time there was a small community comprising 100 dog bone-winners and their families. Each morning for as long as anyone can remember the 100 dogs set off into the field to dig for bones to bring back home to their families. The government's bone policy was designed to ensure that there were always enough bones for all the bone-winners to succeed in their search and no dog families went without a bone. The community was secure, young dogs were happy and well prepared to take over the bone-winner's role when the older dogs retired. There was no bone-stealing and all the bone-winners always had an incentive to get up each day to dig for the bones that were buried in the field each night.
Each morning, the bone-winners would groom themselves with pride and head off to the field. You could see how keen they were to get on the road and go and dig for bones (see picture to right). One day the 100 dog bone-winners set off for the field and when they arrived they found there were only 94 bones buried. Some dogs who were always very sharp dug up two bones as usual, others dug up the usual one bone. However, as a matter of accounting, at least 6 dog bone-winners returned home to their families that day bone-less. There was initial despair but because this had never happened before the bone-less families pulled together and ensured that their bone-winner maintained spirit and arose earlier than usual next morning and spent the extra time grooming and getting prepared for the day in the field.
But the pattern set in and the next day the 100 dogs set out to dig for 94 bones. They searched vigorously but only 94 bones were in the field. The situation started to get desperate and the government bone policy took a sharp turn and started to focus on the motivation of the bone-seekers who were bone-less.
Consultants were called in - dog psychologists and dog-trainers - to work on the attitudes of the bone-less dogs. Initially there was resistance because the dogs didn't feel that they were to blame. 100 dogs but only 94 bones. The Bone Network was established by BoneCentre to provide various programs designed to help the bone-less dogs get back into bone-winning shape and organisations sprung up all over the small community to offer Bone Network services. The bone-less dogs began to hear new terms like bone-seekers and the staff in the Bone Network provider offices often called them clients. As time went by changes continued and each bone-less dog (and by now more than 25 per cent of them had been in that state for over 52 weeks) had to attend the nearest Bone Network office and be classified by the Bone Seeker Classification Instrument (BSCI). One dog was asked about the assessment process undertaken in the BSCI interview by the BoneCentre officer. The dog replied that the BoneCentre officer had a big sheet and put down numbers. Every time the dog fidgeted a bit a bad score under the heading "observable behaviours" was noted. The bone-less dog was considered a problem if they were "too quiet", or "too loud", or "talked over", or used "inappropriate or aggressive language", "talked incessantly", showed a "lack of insight", had "unusual dress", "inappropriate make-up application", and "shaked, paced, twitched, trembled" and almost any other sign of nervousness that accompanied their bone-less state.
The young dogs in the dog-school yards started using new words to describe the dog-parents who were bone-less. One bone-less dog heard his young pup using terminology like Bone Snobs in the back dog-yard one evening and the dog was filled with despair and self-hate. You could clearly observe the change in the grooming and bearing of the bone-less dogs. Once proud now forlorn. Some of them became ill while others found their families were no longer the happy places as they had previously been. The dog divorce rate increased. The typical vibrant nightly family discussions that came after the day's bone digging were now marked with a sense of purposelessness and the whole bone-less dog-family was affected. BoneCentre also introduced a new scheme designed to ensure that the bone-less dogs earned the survival bones that were given to them. This became known as the very popular Dig For The Bone program and BoneCentre officials talked endlessly about compliance and mutual obligation. One bone-less dog muttered that mutual was like a tango - it needed two parties to be successful.
BoneCentre also commissioned a major consultant's report which identified eight bone seeker segments, which reflected the bone-seeker's level of motivation towards the bone search activity. A complex diagram summarised the eight segments. Only one of these segments was focused on by the community's media next day. It identified Cruising Bone Seekers who were described as being relaxed about being bone-less and didn't really want to return to the field and had stopped going out to the field each day. The terminology quickly entered the kid's dog-school yard jargon. Any dog walking down the street during the hours when they would normally be digging in the field were taunted with the term. But there were still 100 dogs willing to dig each day and only 94 bones. BoneCentre published a monthly Bone-Less rate and this became contentious because the definition of being bone-less excluded those who didn't go out to the field each day. The same dogs had always gone out and would again but they understood the equation - 100 dogs 94 bones. BoneCentre said that the Bone-Less rate was around 3 per cent and would drop further once the benefits of the Bone Network were realised.
Some of the help given by the Bone Network helped make some individuals more motivated and aggressive and so subtle changes were noticed in the composition of the bone-less dogs at the end of each day. But no matter how many resources BoneCentre pumped into the Bone Network, there were still many dogs who remained bone-less day in day out. They steadily lost their pride and their appearance became increasingly worrying (see a typical Long-Term Bone-Less Dog to the right). The rate of bone theft rose dramatically and dog prisons started to grow at a faster rate than dog schools as the government rallied the community around law and order issues.
However, whichever way you counted the bone-less rate there were 100 dogs wanting to go to the field each day and only 94 bones were buried there.
100 dogs and 94 bones.
THE END
Thanks to Phillip Harvey for inspiration. Ideal for children as a bed-time story. It teaches them about their future.
Neoclassical monetary theory considers that money enters into the economy via exchange. The current stock of money is determined by the interaction with high powered money (issued by the Central Bank (CB)) and the money multiplier (which is a function of the reserve ratio and deposits ratio). Thus, the CB controls the money supply (it is exogenous). Interest rates in this model are endogenous and rise if budget deficit spending rise as a result of the squeeze in the money market. The only way a budget deficit can occur without higher interest rates is if the CB increases high powered money and that is considered inflationary. Further, deficits require bond-financing which implies that taxes have to be higher in the future.
In this brief, we show that government spending does not require financing. Taxes are levied (in part) to ensure that the private sector has an incentive to transfer goods and services to the public sector in response to Government spending of fiat currency. The Government is the monopoly provider of fiat currency. The private sector (households and firms, including banks) has to acquire the fiat currency to pay its taxes. If the Government is in deficit, then the surplus fiat currency in the private sector is accumulated as cash, bank reserves, or as Treasury Bonds (deposits offered by the CB). The taxes are scrapped (either the cash is burned or the CB wipes off liabilities from its balance sheet). Logically, taxes cannot finance spending because fiat currency has to be spent prior to taxes being paid.
Why are bonds-issued? They provide the financial system with an interest-bearing asset and allow banks with excess reserves an opportunity to earn above a zero return. Bond issues are part of monetary policy. If the fiscal spending has created excess reserves and there is downward pressure on the cash rate, then the CB can sell bonds as a means of maintaining their cash rate goals. Spending adds to reserves while taxes and bond sales drain reserves. The latter are considered to be part of the CB reserve maintenance operations.
These are termed vertical components and include the obtaining of fiat currency from the State, the paying of taxes to the State, or any intermediation in the process. CB policy determines the relative distribution of the accumulated currency units of the private sector between cash, reserves (clearing balances), and Treasury securities. State (deficit) spending determines the magnitude of those accumulated financial assets.
The horizontal component is well-described in Post Keynesian monetary theory and includes the all credit activities that leverage of the fiat currency. While the vertical component is exogenous, the horizontal component is endogenous and nets to zero. The banking system responds to depends for credit to finance production and then worries about the reserve implications. The CB stands ready to lend reserves should the banks fall short to maintain stability of the system and the current cash rate target. Government spending cannot crowd out investment in this setting.
The diagram below summarises this discussion.
14 The Macroeconomic Demand for Labour
213
THE TALE OF 100 DOGS AND 95 BONES
BOX 14.1
Imagine a small community comprising 100 dogs. Each morning they set off into the field to dig
for bones. If there are enough bones for all buried in the field, then all the dogs could succeed in
their search.
Now imagine that one day the 100 dogs set off for the field as usual but this time they find
there are only 95 bones buried
Some dogs who were always very skilled at finding bones might dig up two bones and others
will dig up the usual one bone. But, as a matter of accounting, at least five dogs will return home
bone-less
Now imagine that the government decides that this is unsustainable and decides that it is the
skills and motivation of the bone-less dogs that is the problem. They are not skilled or motivated
enough.Thus, if the problem were to be constructed to be an individual one, then an individual-
ised solution would be appropriate.
So
and skills of the bone-less dogs. The dogs undergo assessment and are assigned case managers.
They are told that unless they train they will miss out on their nightly bowl of food that the
government provides to them while bone-less. They feel despondent.
After running and digging skills are imparted to the bone-less dogs, things start to change.
While the training helps some dogs improve their luck at finding bones, others turn up boneless.
All the training does is to shuffle the queue, always leaving at least 5 dogs without bones.
No amount of training and motivational speeches can resolve the problem; the only solution
is to provide more bones.
The point is that when there are insufficient jobs available in the economy, the unemployed are
powerless to redress that shortage no matter how hard they search.
Supply side programmes, concentrating on the motivation or skills of the unemployed, will
only shuffle the jobless queue in a situation of jobs shortage.
range of dog psychologists and dog trainers might be called in to work on the attitudes
Source: Based on ideas within Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) (c.2001)
This was an important lesson that governments learned in the 1930s as a result of the work of Keynes and
others. The Classical theory of employment distracted policymakers from seeing that the fundamental solution
to unemployment was to increase aggregate demand relative to aggregate supply. As a consequence, in the early
years of the Great Depression, millions of workers lost their jobs as governments tried to implement the wage-
cutting solutions proposed by the dominant Classical viewpoint.
It was only when governments expanded their deficits that the Great Depression came to an end
14.4 A Classical Resurgence Thwarted
The fallacy inherent in the Classical faith in wage and price adjustments was first noted by Karl Marx (1863) in his
Theories of Surplus Value where he discusses the problem of realisation of sales when there is unemployment. He
was the first to understand the notion of effective demand. He made the distinction between a notional demand
for a good (a desire) and an effective demand (one that is backed with ability to pay).
It is obvious that the unemployed want to consume more, but because they have no or little income, they can-
not translate their notional desires into effective spending. Accordingly, the market, which relies on consumers
entering shops with money to purchase goods and services, fails to receive any demand signal from the unem-
ployed and so firms cannot respond with higher production.
This distinction between notional and effective demand was at the heart of the 'Keynes and Classics' debate
during the Great Depression. It is central to Keynes' attack on Say's Law, which claimed that 'supply creates its
own demand
14労働に対するマクロ経済的需要
213
100犬と95骨の物語
ボックス14.1
100匹の犬からなる小さなコミュニティを想像してみてください。毎朝彼らは掘るために畑に出始めた。
骨のために。畑に埋もれたすべての人に十分な骨があれば、すべての犬が成功する可能性があります。
彼らの検索
ある日、100匹の犬がいつものように畑に向かって出発したと想像してみてください。
骨は95個しか埋まっていない
常に骨を見つけるのに非常に熟練していた何人かの犬は2本の骨と他を掘るかもしれません
通常の1つの骨を掘り下げます。しかし、会計の問題として、少なくとも5匹の犬が家に帰るでしょう
骨なし
今、政府がこれは持続不可能であると決定し、それが
骨のない犬のスキルとやる気が問題です。彼らは熟練していないまたはやる気がありません
問題が個々の問題であると構築されるのであれば、
解決策は適切でしょう。
そう
と骨のない犬のスキル。犬は評価を受け、症例管理者に割り当てられます。
彼らは彼らが訓練しない限り彼らがその食物の彼らの夜間のボウルで逃すであろうと言われます
政府は彼らに骨のない状態で支給します。彼らは失望しています。
走ることと掘ることのスキルが骨のない犬に授けられたあと、物事は変わり始めます。
この訓練は、いくつかの犬が骨を見つけることで彼らの運を向上させるのを助けますが、他の人は骨のない状態になります。
トレーニングはすべてキューをシャッフルすることで、常に骨のない犬を5匹以上残します。
この問題を解決するためのトレーニングや動機付けのスピーチの量はありません。唯一の解決策
より多くの骨を提供することです。
重要なのは、経済に十分な雇用がない場合、失業者は
たとえ彼らが捜し求めようとも、その不足を是正することは無力です。
失業者のやる気やスキルに焦点を当てた供給サイドプログラムは、
仕事が不足している状況でのみ失業キューをシャッフルします。
態度に取り組むために、さまざまな犬の心理学者や犬のトレーナーが呼ばれるかもしれません。
出典：完全雇用と公平の中心（CofFEE）内のアイデアに基づく（c.2001）
これは、ケインズとケインズの活動の結果として1930年代に政府が学んだ重要な教訓であった。
その他古典的な雇用理論は、政策決定者が根本的な解決策であると考えることを妨げた。
失業者数の増加は、総供給量に対する総需要量の増加です。結果として、初期に
大恐慌の何年もの間、政府が賃金を執行しようとしたために何百万人もの労働者が失業した。
支配的な古典的観点から提案された切削解
大恐慌が終わったのは、政府が赤字を拡大したときだけでした。
14.4阻止された古典的な復活
賃金と物価の調整に対する古典的な信仰に内在する誤謬は、カール・マルクス（1863）によって最初に指摘されました。
彼は失業があるとき彼が販売の実現の問題を論じる余剰価値の理論。彼
有効需要の概念を最初に理解したのは、彼は概念上の要求を区別しました
良い（欲望）と実効的な需要（支払い能力に裏打ちされたもの）のために。
失業者がより多くのものを消費したいのは明らかですが、収入がないかほとんどないため、
概念的な欲求を効果的な支出に変換しないでください。したがって、消費者に頼る市場
商品やサービスを購入するためにお金を使って店に入っても、危険からの需要信号を受け取れない。
採用されているので、企業はより高い生産で対応することはできません。
概念的需要と実効的需要のこの区別は、「ケインズとクラシック」の議論の中心にありました。
大恐慌の間に。それはケインズのセイの法則に対する攻撃の中心であり、それは「供給がそれを生み出すと主張した」
自分の要求
chrismealy on Aug 23, 2011 | parent | favorite | on: What You Don't Get About the Job Search: Voices of...
One more, from Philip Harvey:
There once was an island with a population of 100 dogs. Every day a plane flew overhead and dropped 95 bones onto the island. It was a dog paradise, except for the fact that every day 5 dogs went hungry. Hearing about the problem, a group of social scientists was sent to assess the situation and recommend remedies.
The social scientists ran a series of regressions and determined that bonelessness in the dog population was associated with lower levels of bone- seeking effort and that boneless dogs also lacked important skills in fighting for bones. As a remedy for the problem, some of the social scientists proposed that boneless dogs needed a good kick in the side, while others proposed that boneless dogs be provided special training in bone-fighting skills.
A bitter controversy ensued over which of these two strategies ought to be pursued. Over time, both strategies were tried, and both reported limited success in helping individual dogs overcome their bonelessness -- but despite this success, the bonelessness problem on the island never lessened in the aggregate. Every day, there were still five dogs who went hungry.
|
chrismealy、2011年8月23日。親|お気に入り| on：求人検索で得られないもの：の声...
もう1つ、Philip Harveyから。
かつて100匹の犬が住んでいる島がありました。毎日飛行機が頭上を飛んで島に95個の骨を落としました。毎日5匹の犬がおなかがすいたという事実を除いて、それは犬の楽園でした。問題について聞いて、社会科学者のグループは状況を評価して、そして救済を勧めるために送られました。
社会科学者たちは一連の回帰分析を行い、犬の集団における骨のないことは低レベルの骨探索努力と関連していること、そして骨のない犬も骨との闘いにおいて重要なスキルを欠いていると判断しました。この問題の解決策として、社会の科学者の中には、骨のない犬にはサイドでの優れた蹴りが必要であると提案した人もいれば、骨のない犬に骨格闘技能の特別な訓練を受けることを提案する人もいました。
これら二つの戦略のうちどちらを追求すべきかについての激しい論争が続いた。時間が経つにつれて、両方の戦略が試みられ、そして両方とも個々の犬が彼らの骨のないことを克服するのを助けることにおける限られた成功を報告した - しかしこの成功にもかかわらず、島の骨のない問題は総計で決して減っなかった。毎日、おなかがすいた５匹の犬がいました。
2011年8月23日のhugh3 [ - ]
完全に構成された状況との信じられないほどゆるい類推に基づいて現実世界の経済問題について議論することについての事柄はあなたがそれをほとんどあらゆることについて議論するために使用できるということです。しかし、このような構成の状況が現実の世界に似ていることはめったにありません。
5teev、2011年8月23日[ - ]
あなたが自分のために他の5つの骨を保つ犬を含まない限り。
2011年8月23日のトレベリアン[ - ]
経済的なポイントは、高い失業率は不十分な総需要の産物であるということです。洞察はケインズにさかのぼります。
2011年8月23日yummyfajitas [ - ]
データは本当にこれが本当の問題であることを示唆していません。生産は回復しました。雇用はありません。問題がADの場合は発生しません。
残念ながら、現実の世界はケインズが提案したCalc 1モデルよりもかなり複雑です。
2011年8月25日のトレベリアン[ - ]
生産は総需要の尺度ではなく、私が知っている計量経済学を行う者は誰もセイの法則を真剣に受け止めていません。ケインズはそれについての問題のいくつかを十分に奇妙に指摘しました、しかし私の知る限り彼は「Calc 1モデル」を提案しませんでした。
総需要が完全雇用の時点に近いところにあれば、インフレの証拠が見られるでしょう。私たちはしない。米ドルが下落するにつれて、名目で上昇する価格もありますが、それはまったく異なります。
What is a Job Guarantee? – Bill Mitchell – Modern Monetary Theory
The total estimated labour wastage in Australia – taking into account unemployment, hidden unemployment and underemployment – is currently at 13.9 per cent of the available labour force. To get back to where the economy was at the start of the crisis in February 2008 would require some 398 thousand jobs to be created.
Unemployment Benefits – Bill Mitchell – Modern Monetary Theory
2018年9月18日 ... Just imagine what they could have written about the “Faces of Unemployment” if a Job Guarantee ...
The MMT government job guarantee - Independent Australia
2018年10月11日 ... The MMT government job guarantee. The modern monetary theory can also offer a solution to the nation's unemployment problems, writes Stephen Williams. ... MMT is not a set of policy prescriptions. Rather, to use co-founder Bill Mitchell's word, it is a “lens” that allows us to see more clearly what already exists.
Ep. 18 Warren Mosler Defends the Essential Insights of Modern ...
2019年2月22日 ... Warren's policy proposals, in light of MMT. Other MMT proponents: Bill Mitchell, Stephanie Kelton, Randall ..... McDonalds employee at $15/hr than an unemployed worker, but who fills ...
Constructive Criticisms of a Job Guarantee Program - Pragmatic ...
MMT states that unemployment is caused by the imposition of a fiat monetary system. .... Such behavior would most certainly become inflationary as Mitchell and Wray (2005) concede ...
MMT 7: A Full Employment Proposal | Beneath the Surface
2018年7月11日 ... The goal of full employment The authors argue for full ... MMT 7: A Full Employment Proposal ... Modern Monetary Theory, based on the text by Mitchell, Wray and Watts. ... Sluggish economic growth and high unemployment ...
MMT 3 – a backstop to capitalism | Michael Roberts Blog
2019年2月5日 ... Bill Mitchell is a leading MMT economist from Australia and has ... He describes it as “an open-ended public employment ... The unemployment rate fell but real wages stagnated.
Warren Mosler MMT: Unemployment, dogs and bones. - YouTube
Warren Mossler (MMT): Unemployment, dogs and bones. Source: https://youtu.be /OPbgbr2Mk6I.
再生時間：1:18
投稿日：2017年1月25日
縦横図
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p.213
返信削除BOX14.1
THE TALE OF100 DOGS AND 95 BONES
lmagine a small community comprising 100 dogs. Each morning they set off into the field to dig
for bones. lf there are enough bones for all buried in the field,then all the dogs could succeed in
their search.
Now imagine that one day the 100 dogs set off for the field as usual but this time they find
there are onty 95 bones buried.
Some dogs who were always very skilled at finding bones might dig up two bones and others
will dig up the usual one bone. But, as a matter of accounting, at least five dogs will return home
bone-less.
Now imagine that the government decides that this is unsustainable and decides that it is the
skills and motivation of the bone-less dogs that is the problem. They are not skilled or motivated
enough. Thus, if the problem were to be constructed to be an individual one, then an individualised
solution would be appropriate.
So, a range of dog psychologists and dog trainers might be called in to work on the attitudes
and skills of the bone-less dogs. The dogs undergo assessment and are assigned case managers.
They are told that unless they train they will miss out on their nightly bowl of food that the
government provides to them while bone-less. They feel despondent.
After running and digging skills are imparted to the bone-less dogs, things start to change
white the training helps some dogs improve their luck at finding bones, others turn up boneless.
All the training does is to shuffle the queue, always leaving at least 5 dogs without bones.
No amount of training and motivational speeches can resolve the problem; the only solution
is to provide more bones.
The point is that when there are insufficient jobs available in the economy the unemployed are
powerless to redress that shortage no matter how hard they search.
Supply side programmes, concentrating on the motivation or skills of the unemployed, will
only suffle the jobless queue in a situation of jobs shortage.
Source: Based on ideas within Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE)[c.2001]
p.213
BOX14.1
100匹の犬と95匹の骨の物語
100匹の犬で構成される小さなコミュニティを想像してみてください。毎朝、彼らは骨を掘りあてるために外に出ます。
全員分の十分な骨が野原に埋まっていれば、すべての犬が捜索に成功する可能性があります。
ある日、100匹の犬がいつものように野原に出発したと想像してください。
95個の骨が埋まっています。
常に骨を見つけるのが非常に上手だった犬の中には、2つの骨を掘り出すものもあれば、
いつものように1つの骨を掘ります。しかし、会計上の問題として、少なくとも5匹の犬が骨もなく家に帰るでしょう。
政府がこれを持続不可能であると決定し、それが
問題である骨のない犬のスキルと動機。彼らは熟練していないか、やる気がない
十分な。したがって、問題が個別の問題になるように構築される場合には、個別化された
解決策が適切とされます。
したがって、さまざまな犬の心理学者と犬のトレーナーが態度に取り組むために呼び出される可能性があります。
骨のない犬のスキル。犬は評価を受け、ケースマネージャーに割り当てられます。
彼らは、彼らが訓練をしない限り、彼らは毎晩食べ物のボウルを見逃すだろうと言われます。
政府は骨なしで彼らに提供します。彼らは落胆を感じます。
骨のない犬にランニングと掘削のスキルが与えられた後、物事は変わり始めます
トレーニングは、一部の犬が骨を見つける運を向上させるのに役立ち、他の犬は骨のない犬になります。
トレーニングは、常に少なくとも5匹の犬を骨なしで残して、くじを振り直すことです。
問題を解決できるトレーニングや動機付けるスピーチはありません。唯一の解決策はより多くの骨を提供することです。
要点は、経済で利用可能な仕事が不足しているとき、失業者はどんなに懸命に探しても、その不足を補うことはできないということです。
失業者の意欲やスキルに集中する供給サイドプログラム
ジョブが不足している状況でのみ、ジョブレスキューを変更します。
出典：Center of Full Employment and Equity（CofFEE）[c.2001]内のアイデアに基づく
100匹の犬と95匹の骨の物語
100匹の犬で構成される小さなコミュニティを想像してください。毎朝、彼らは掘るために野外に出発しました
骨用。野原に埋葬されているすべての人に十分な骨があれば、すべての犬が成功する可能性があります
彼らの検索。
ある日、100匹の犬がいつものように野原に出発したと想像してください。
95個の骨が埋まっています。
常に骨を見つけるのが非常に上手だった犬の中には、2つの骨を掘り出すものもあれば、
通常の骨を掘ります。しかし、会計の問題として、少なくとも5匹の犬が骨のない家に帰るでしょう。
政府がこれを持続不可能であると決定し、それが
問題である骨のない犬のスキルと動機。彼らは熟練していないか、やる気がない
十分な。したがって、問題が個別の問題になるように構築される場合、個別化された
解決策が適切です。
したがって、さまざまな犬の心理学者と犬のトレーナーが態度に取り組むために呼び出される可能性があります
骨のない犬のスキル。犬は評価を受け、ケースマネージャーに割り当てられます。
彼らは、彼らが訓練をしない限り、彼らは毎晩食べ物のボウルを見逃すだろうと言われています
政府は骨なしで彼らに提供します。彼らは落胆を感じます。
骨のない犬にランニングと掘削のスキルが与えられた後、物事は変わり始めます
トレーニングは、一部の犬が骨を見つける運を向上させるのに役立ち、他の犬は骨のない犬になります。
トレーニングは、常に少なくとも5匹の犬を骨なしで残して、キューをシャッフルすることです。
問題を解決できるトレーニングや動機付けのスピーチはありません。唯一の解決策
より多くの骨を提供することです。
要点は、経済で利用可能な仕事が不足しているとき、失業者は
どんなに懸命に検索しても、その不足を補うことは無力です。
失業者の意欲やスキルに集中する供給サイドプログラム
ジョブが不足している状況でのみ、ジョブレスキューを変更します。
出典：Center of Full Employment and Equity（CofFEE）[c.2001]内のアイデアに基づく