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水曜日, 6月 19, 2019

#24 External economy considerations

External economy considerations
https://nam-students.blogspot.com/2019/06/external-economy-considerations.html@


#24:387

24.2 Net exports as a function of constant price national income 387 
24.2恒常価格の国民所得の関数としての純輸出387

Trade
Surplus
　　　｜
　　　｜＼
　　　｜　＼
　　　｜　　＼　　　
　　　｜　　　＼　　
　　　｜　　　　＼　
　　　｜　　　　　＼
　　０｜ーーーーーー＼ーーーーーーー
　　　｜　　　　Y０　＼　　　　　National Income
　　　｜　　　　　　　　＼
　　　｜　　　　　　　　　＼
　　　｜　　　　　　　　　　＼
　　　｜　　　　　　　　　　　＼NX(Yw,R)
Trade
Deficit

Figure 15.3 Net exports as a function of real national income

External economy considerations – Part 1

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21542


#24? Modern monetary theory in an open economy – Bill Mitchell – Modern Monetary Theory
2009/10/13
＆
 The capacity of the state and the open economy – Part 1 – Bill Mitchell – Modern Monetary Theory 2016/2/8


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21542

External economy considerations – Part 1

Figure 15.1 Comparison of international prices
What determines the exchange rate?
Exchange rates are determined by the supply of and the demand for currencies in the world foreign exchange markets, which could be the local bank foreign currency desk or elsewhere, like a train station kiosk in a city where travellers meet.
Sometimes we refer to foreign exchange in jargon as forex. The supply of and demand for currencies are in turn linked to trade and capital flows between countries.
In Figure 15.2 we consider the foreign exchange market for the $A and the $US. In reality, many currencies are traded in the foreign exchange market.
Figure 15.2 A simple bi-lateral foreign exchange market


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21645

External economy considerations – Part 2


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21709

External economy considerations – Part 3

Figure 15.3 Net exports as a function of real national income
[#25:387]
We an use this understanding and that provided by the equilibrium national income expression (Equation 15.10) to study what happens to national income when world income and/or the exchange rate changes.
Figure 15.4 Equilibrium national income with a change in world income
By way of summary, a rise in world income induces a rise in foreign purchases of the economy’s exports, in the same way that the local economy’s import demand will be stimulated if its national income rises.
This has two effects: 
  • The Aggregate Demand line (E0) shifts upwards by the initial injection of aggregate demand from exports (ΔX), giving rise to a new level of equilibrium national income Y*. The increase in equilibrium national income is given by 1/[1 – c(1 – t) + m] times ΔX, given the constant interest rate. This is just a specific example of the general result that the aggregate demand schedule shifts in response to changes in autonomous spending;
  • The NX = 0 line shifts to the right from NX0 = 0 to NX1 = 0.
  • Imports rise too because the shift in the Aggregate Demand line (to E1) means that income levels are higher. But the shift in the NX = 0 line is greater than the increase in equilibrium income. Thus NX rise, but by less than the rise in exports. This result holds even if domestic interest rates rise.
Advanced Material – An increase in World Income leads to a rise in Net Exports
Prior to the rise in world income, the level of real GDP, Y0 is consistent with a balance of trade, NX0 = 0. 
Assuming no change in the exchange rate, we can write this as:
(15.11)      X0 = M0 + mY0
where the M0 is a constant quantity of imports at the current constant exchange rate.
If we denote ΔX = λΔYw, which is the increase in exports resulting from the rise in world income, then national income Y1 at which net exports are zero, satisfies:
(15.12)      X0 + ΔX = M0 + mY1
If we subtract Equation (15.11) from (15.12) we get:
(15.13)      ΔX = mY1 – mY0 = mΔY‘
So the change in the level of real GDP, such that net exports are again zero is given by:
(15.14)      ΔY‘ = ΔX/m
On the other hand, the increase in equilibrium real GDP (national income) resulting from an autonomous increase in exports (driven by the rise in world income) is given by (from Equation 15.10):
(15.154)      ΔY = 1/[1 – c(1 – t) + m] times ΔX
This magnitude is less than ΔX/m because [1 – c(1 – t) + m] > 0.
Thus at the new national equilibrium, Y*, net exports are positive – that is, in surplus.


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25760

External economy considerations – Part 4

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25846

External economy considerations – Part 5



http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21542

対外経済の考察 - パート1

billFriday、2012年11月2日

図15.1国際価格の比較



何が為替レートを決定するのですか？

為替レートは、世界の外国為替市場における通貨の供給と需要によって決定されます。これは、旅行者が集まる都市の駅のキオスクのように、現地の銀行の外貨デスクまたはその他の場所で可能です。

時々私達は専門用語の外国為替を外国為替と呼ぶ。通貨の供給と需要は、今度は、各国間の貿易と資本の流れに関連しています。

図15.2では、$ Aと$ USの外国為替市場を考えています。実際には、多くの通貨が外国為替市場で取引されています。

図15.2単純な双方向の外国為替市場




http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21645

対外経済の考察 - パート2

billFriday、2012年11月9日

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21709

対外経済の考察 - パート3

billFriday、2012年11月16日

図15.3実質国民所得の関数としての純輸出



我々は、この理解と、世界の所得や為替レートが変化したときに国民所得に何が起こるかを研究するための均衡国民所得表現（式15.10）によって提供されるものとを使用する。

図15.4世界の所得の変化と均衡のある国民所得



要約すると、世界の所得の増加は、その国の所得が増加すれば地方経済の輸入需要が刺激されるのと同じように、経済の輸出の海外購入の増加を誘発する。

これには2つの効果があります。

総需要ライン（E0）は、輸出からの総需要の最初の投入（ΔX）によって上方にシフトし、均衡国民所得Y *の新たなレベルを生み出しています。均衡国民所得の増加は、一定の利子を考えると、1 / [1  -  c（1  -  t）+ m]×ΔXで与えられる。これは、自律支出の変化に応じて総需要スケジュールがシフトするという一般的な結果の具体例です。
NX = 0の行は、NX0 = 0からNX1 = 0へと右にシフトします。
総需要ラインの（E1への）シフトが所得水準がより高いことを意味するので、輸入も上がります。しかし、NX = 0の推移は均衡所得の増加よりも大きい。このようにNXは上昇していますが、輸出の増加よりも少なくなっています。国内金利が上がってもこの結果は成り立ちます。
先端材料 - 世界所得の増加は純輸出の増加をもたらします
世界の所得が増加する前は、実質GDPの水準Y0は貿易収支と一致しています、NX0 = 0。

為替レートに変化がないと仮定すると、これを次のように書くことができます。

（15.11）X0 = M0 + mY0

ここで、M0は現在の一定の為替レートでの一定量の輸入です。

世界の所得の増加に起因する輸出の増加であるΔX=λΔYwを表すと、純輸出がゼロになる国民所得Y1は、次の式を満たします。

（１５．１２）Ｘ 0 ＋ ΔＸ ＝ Ｍ 0 ＋ ｍＹ 1

式（15.12）から式（15.11）を引くと、

（１５．１３）ΔＸ ＝ ｍＹ１ − ｍＹ０ ＝ ｍΔＹ ’

そのため、純輸出が再びゼロになるような実質GDPの水準の変化は、

（15.14）ΔY ´=ΔX/ m

一方、輸出の自律的な増加に起因する均衡実質GDP（国民所得）の増加は（世界の所得の増加によって促進される）、（式15.10より）で与えられる。

（１５．１５４）ΔＹ ＝ １ ／ ［１ − ｃ（１ − ｔ）＋ ｍ］×ΔＸ

[1  -  c（1  -  t）+ m]> 0であるため、この大きさはΔX/ m未満です。

このように、新しい国家均衡、Y *では、純輸出はプラス、すなわち黒字です。




http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25760

対外経済の考察 - パート4

billFriday、2013年10月18日
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25846

対外経済の考察 - パート5

billFriday、2013年10月25日

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21542

External economy considerations – Part 1

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text by the end of this year. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

Chapter 15 International Trade, Capital Flows and the Exchange Rate
[Note: This is the first rough layout and will evolve over the next few weeks]
15.1 Introduction
In Chapter 8, we introduced trade into the income-expenditure model. The representation was simplistic, in the sense, that we assumed that exports were determined by the income levels prevailing in the rest of the world (that is, they were exogenous to the domestic economy) and that imports were a simple proportion of the national income of the homeeconomy. This proportion was termed the marginal propensity to import.
In this Chapter we extend our understanding of the way in which the economy behaves once it becomes open to the World. We will continue to consider the price level to be fixed, which means we are assuming that firms respond to an increase in aggregate demand by increasing real output. Later in the Chapter we will consider price level movements in the open economy context.
We will the consider the concept of an exchange rate and examine how movements in exchange rates influence exports and imports and financial transactions between nations.
For an economy as a whole, imports are real goods and services coming into the nation from abroad and as such represent a real benefit to residents. Conversely, exports are real goods and services that are sold to foreigners.
Exports represent a real cost to residents because they represent real resources (labour, capital and other productive inputs) that the residents are unable to utilise themselves.
It is obvious that the only motivation for a nation to export, and incur the real costs involved in exporting goods and services abroad, is to gain foreign currencies, which, in turn, allow the nation to purchase other goods and services that it does not produce itself. 
If imports exceed exports then a nation is able enjoy higher material living standard by consuming more goods and services than it produces for foreign consumption. We will consider how this conception of trade interacts with a flexible exchange rate.
You will already appreciate that the transactions between nations involve both real goods and services and financial flows. The financial transactions represents currency flows in and out of a nation and have significant implications for movements in the exchange rate and other macroeconomic aggregates, such as interest rates, the inflation rate and real GDP.
All transactions between a nation and the rest of the world are recorded in the Balance of Payments. We will initially examine the way the national statistician accounts for the external economy via the Balance of Payments, which is a framework that is closely related to the National Accounts.
15.2 The Balance of Payments
National Statistical agencies regularly publish statistics relating to a nation’s economic interaction with the rest of the world using what is known as the balance of payments and international investment position framework. While there are variations in terminology used by different nations the principles are universal. Most nations use the International Monetary Funds’s http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/pdf/bpm6.pdf (BPM6), augmented by the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA), “as the standard framework for statistics on the transactions and positions between an economy and the rest of the world” (IMF, 2011: 1).
The IMF define the balance of payments as:
… a statistical statement that summarizes transactions between residents and nonresidents during a period. It consists of the goods and services account, the primary income account, the secondary income account, the capital account, and the financial account.
The differentiating feature of these difference accounts relates to “the nature of the economic resources provided and received” by the nation (IMF, 2011: 9).
The Current Account (IMF, 2011: 9):
… shows flows of goods, services, primary income, and secondary income between residents and nonresidents.
The goods and services or balance of trade records “transactions in items that are outcomes of production activities” (IMF, 2011: 149) and considers the exchanges between the local economy and the rest of the world.
[NOTE THIS SECTION IS TO BE WRITTEN AND IS DESCRIPTIVE – IT OUTLINES THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND RELATED INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTS]
15.3 Essential concepts
Before we consider a more complex income and expenditure model (to incorporate exchange rates) we need to understand the basic nomenclature.
The following essential concepts are used in open economy macroeconomics:
  • Nominal exchange rates
  • Foreign exchange markets
  • Exchange rate determination mechanisms – fixed and flexible
  • Real or effective exchange rates, unit labour costs and competitiveness
We will consider the history of exchange rate systems in a later section of this Chapter.
Nominal exchange rate (e)
The nominal exchange rate (e) is the number of units of one currency that can be purchased with one unit of another currency. There are two ways in which we can quote a bi-lateral exchange rate. Consider the relationship between the Australian dollar ($A) and the United States dollar ($US).
  • We might be interested in knowing the amount of Australian currency that is necessary to purchase one unit of the US currency ($US1). In this case, the $US is what we call the reference currency and the other currency is expressed in terms of how much of it is required to buy one unit of the reference currency. So $A0.80 = $US1 means that it takes $0.80 (or 80 cents) of Australian currency to buy one $US.
  • Alternatively, e can be defined as the amount of US dollars that are needed to by one unit of Australian currency ($A1). In this case, the $A is the reference currency. So, in the example above, this is written as $US1.25= $A1. Thus if it takes $0.80 Australian to buy one $US, then $US1.25 is required to buy one $A.
It is clear that the quotation under the first alternative with the US dollar as the reference currency is the inverse of the second alternative. But to understand exchange rate quotations you must know which is the reference currency. In this Chapter we use the first convention so e is the amount of domestic currency which is required to buy one unit of the foreign currency.
e is the amount of $A which is required to buy one unit of the foreign currency
Change in e – appreciation and depreciation
Imagine that an Australian resident wishes to buy a product from a USA supplier who quotes the current US price as $US40 and the $A-$US parity is current at $0.80. Then the equivalent Australian price is $A32 (multiply the foreign price by the nominal exchange rate. This situation is shown in the first row of Figure 15.1.
What happens if the nominal exchange rate falls to 0.70 (as shown in the second row of Figure 15.1)? This means that instead of 80 cents Australian being required to purchase one $US only 70 cents Australian is required.
So, a fall in e means that the $A has appreciated – it is worth more in terms of foreign reference currency. In the example shown in Figure 15.1, this would mean that the price of the product from the USA would now be equal to $A28 (0.7 times $US40).
Thus, even though the quoted US dollar price for the product remains unchanged, the local price equivalent is now lower when the nominal exchange rate appreciates.
The example shows that an appreciation of the $A leads to:
  • Cheaper foreign goods in terms of $A and, other things being equal, this should lead to a rise in the quantity of imports demanded.
  • Higher prices which foreigners will have to pay for our goods, and other things being equal, this should lead to a fall in the quantity of exports demanded.
Now, assume that the Australian-USA parity rises to 0.80 from 0.90. This means that we now need 90 cents Australian to purchase one $US. So, given our exchange rate definition, a rise in e means that the $A has depreciated.
In the example shown in Figure 15.1, this would mean that the price of the product from US would now be equal to $A36 (0.9 times $US40).
The example shows that an depreciation of the $A leads to:
  • Foreign goods more expensive in terms of $A, and other things equal, this should lead to a fall in the quantity of imports demanded.
  • The price foreigners have to pay for our goods lower, and other things equal, this should lead to a rise in the quantity of exports demanded.
Figure 15.1 Comparison of international prices
What determines the exchange rate?
Exchange rates are determined by the supply of and the demand for currencies in the world foreign exchange markets, which could be the local bank foreign currency desk or elsewhere, like a train station kiosk in a city where travellers meet.
Sometimes we refer to foreign exchange in jargon as forex. The supply of and demand for currencies are in turn linked to trade and capital flows between countries.
In Figure 15.2 we consider the foreign exchange market for the $A and the $US. In reality, many currencies are traded in the foreign exchange market.
Figure 15.2 A simple bi-lateral foreign exchange market
Consider the supply of Australian dollars to the foreign exchange market. When Australian residents buy foreign goods (imports), buy foreign assets or lend abroad, they need to purchase the relevant foreign currencies in which the transaction is denominated. To buy the currency they desire, they supply $As in exchange.
Alternatively, on the demand side, when foreigners buy Australian goods and services (exports) and/or Australian financial assets they require $A. They purchase them in the forex market by supplying their own currency in exchange.
Like any market determined price, e is in equilibrium when supply equals demand.
If there is an excess demand for $A then there is pressure for the $A to appreciate in price relative to other currencies. As noted, an appreciation means that one unit of a foreign currency buys less $A, that is e declines.
If there is an excess supply of $A, the $A depreciates and one unit of foreign currency buys more $A, so e increases. 
These changes in e resolve the supply and demand imbalance. In the case of a depreciation in the Australian dollar, the foreign price of Australian exports is now lower (less $US required to purchase a given $A priced good), and with export demand varying inversely with price (by assumption), the demand for exports and hence $A’s rises.
Assuming a fixed import price in the foreign currency, the $A price of imports has risen which reduces the quantity demanded.
While most currencies float freely against each other, at times the central bank will enter the foreign exchange markets as a buyer or seller of the local currency as a means of influencing the parity determined in that market. This is called Official intervention and we will examine it in more detail later in the chapter.
What happens to the total $A value of imports when the exchange rate depreciates depends upon what economists term the price elasticity of demand. An elasticity is the responsiveness in percentage terms of quantity to price changes.
When demand falls less in percentage terms than the price rises, we consider the commodity to be inelastic. Total revenue (or spending) will rise in this case.
When demand falls more in percentage terms than the price rises, we consider the commodity to be elastic. Total revenue (or spending) will fall in this case.
When price and quantity change by the same proportion the commodity has a unitary elasticity and total revenue (or spending) does not change.
Should the demand for imports be price inelastic (less than one), then the quantity demanded (volume) falls by a smaller percentage than the $A rise in price and total import spending in $A would increase.
However, if the price elasticity of demand for imports is greater than one, then the percentage decline in demand (volume) more than offsets the percentage gain in price and so total import spending in $A falls.
The circumstances under which the trade balance unambiguously improves following a depreciation is referred to as the Marshall-Lerner Condition. It states that net exports will improve following a depreciation as long as the sum of the export and import price elasticities exceeds unity. You do not have to learn the proof underpinning this condition.
In summary, if the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied:
  • An excess supply of $A in the foreign exchange market leads to a depreciation in e and a rise in net exports. This will reduce the excess supply of $A in the foreign exchange market.
  • An excess demand for $A in the foreign exchange market leads to an appreciation in e and a decline in net exports. This will reduce the excess demand for $A in the foreign exchange market.
Another component of the current account is net income, which results from the foreign ownership of domestic assets and vice versa. We consider this component of the current account in more detail later in the chapter.
This pattern of ownership of assets gives rise to a net flow of dividend and interest payments. If the net flow is positive then national income rises, other things being equal. If the net flow is negative then national income falls, other things being equal.
In Australia’s case, the net income flows on the current account are negative. In this case, a depreciation in the $A can lead to a deterioration in net income because the interest payments or dividends may be denominated in a foreign currency. The loss of income through this part of the current account may offset any gains that are made as a result of depreciation on the trade balance.
For simplicity, we shall ignore the possible impact on net income and assume that through the satisfaction of the Marshall-Lerner condition a depreciation of the domestic currency not only improves the trade balance but also the current account balance.
We can define three trade balance outcomes:
  • The trade balance is in deficit if the local currency value of its exports is less than the local currency value of its import spending.
  • The trade balance is in surplus if the local currency value of its exports is greater than the local currency value of its import spending.
  • The trade balance is in balance if the local currency value of its exports is equal to the local currency value of its import spending.
Take Australia, as an example. A trade deficit for Australia means that increasing quantities of Australian dollars are being accumulated by non-Australian residents. In return, the non-Australian residents have supplied goods and services (imports) to Australian residents.
Clearly, the foreigners have allowed Australia to run a trade deficit because they preferred to accumulate financial assets denominated in Australian dollars. The alternative would have been to spend the Australian dollars they acquired through their exports to buy Australian goods and services (that is, to buy Australian imports).
Had the foreigners used their export income, which is denominated in $A to purchase other goods and services from Australia, then there would have been a trade balance.
A trade deficit thus means that the foreigners are increasing their nominal savings (which in this case manifests as Australian dollar denominated financial assets).
International competitiveness
[NOTE: I WILL CONTINUE THIS CHAPTER NEXT WEEK]
Saturday Quiz
The Saturday Quiz will be back again tomorrow. It will be of an appropriate order of difficulty (-:
That is enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2012 Bill Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21645

External economy considerations – Part 2

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text by the end of this year. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

[This continues the discussion from rough draft of last week – External economy considerations – Part 1. At some point the pedagogy will be assessed and edited into a final draft]
15.3.4 International Competitiveness
In the previous section we learned that an appreciation (depreciation) of a nation’s exchange rate leads to foreign goods becoming cheaper (dearer) in terms of the local currency, which should lead to a rise (fall) in the quantity of imports demanded, other things equal.
Further, an appreciation (depreciation) of a nation’s exchange rate means that foreigners have to pay higher (lower) prices in their currency for locally-produced goods, which should lead to a rise (fall) in the quantity of exports demanded, other things equal.
These conclusions, however, only focus on one element of the competitiveness of a nation’s goods and services in international trade – the nominal exchange rate.
But to really answer the question – are local goods goods and services becoming more or less competitive with respect to goods and services produced overseas we have to relax the “other things equal” assumption and consider the domestic and foreign inflation rates.
This leads us to define a new concept – the real exchange rate which depends on to factors:
  • Movements in the nominal exchange rate, ee; and
  • Relative inflation rates (domestic and foreign).
There are also non-price dimensions to competitiveness, including quality and reliability of supply, which are assumed to be constant at this stage.
We define the ratio of domestic prices (P) to the rest of the world (Pw) as Pw/P, which we call a relative price because it expresses the foreign price level relative to the domestic price level. We assumed that Pw/P was constant when we analysed movements in the nominal exchange rate in th previous section.
If the nominal exchange rate (e) is fixed, then we can conclude:
  • If Pw is rising faster than P, then local goods are becoming relatively cheaper than foreign goods; and
  • If Pw is rising slower than P, then local goods are becoming relatively more expensive than foreign goods.
The inverse of the relative price ratio, namely (P/Pw) measures the ratio of export prices to import prices and is known as the terms of trade.
15.3.5 The real exchange rate
Movements in the nominal exchange rate and/or the relative price level (Pw/P) provide information about movements in the relative trading competitiveness between nations. The real exchange rate measures the combined impact of these variables and is used to measure our competitiveness in international trade.
The real exchange rate (R) is defined as:
(15.1)      R = (e.Pw)/P
where P is the domestic price level specified in local currency (say, $A), and Pw is the foreign price level specified in foreign currency units (say $US).
The real exchange rate is the ratio of prices of goods abroad measured in $A (ePw) to the $A prices of goods at home (P). So the real exchange rate, R adjusts the nominal exchange rate, e for the relative price levels.
To understand this better consider the following example. Assume that P = $A8 and Pw = $US10, and e = 0.8. Remember a quotation of e = 0.8 means that it takes 80 cents Australian to purchase one unit of US currency (that is, $US1). This means that it takes 
So e x Pw takes the foreign price expressed in foreign currency units and converts it into an equivalent Australian dollar price at the current exchange rate. The numerator and denominator are then in like units – in this case Australian dollars – and so the movements are unambiguous.
In this case R = (0.8 x $US10)/8 = 1. The $US10 translates into $A8 so that the US produced goods are more expensive than those produced in Australia.
A rise in the real exchange rate can occur if:
  • The nominal e depreciates; and/or
  • Pw rises more than P, other things equal.
We consider a rise in the real exchange rate to signal a nation has increased its international trade competitiveness and this should lead to an
increase local exports and reduce local imports.
A fall in the real exchange rate can occur if:
  • The nominal e appreciates; and/or
  • Pw rises less than P, other things equal.
We consider a fall in the real exchange rate to signal a nation’s international trade competitiveness has fallen and this should lead to a fall in local exports and a rise in local imports.
In Chapters 9 and 10, we considered the factors that might impact on the price level of a nation. In particular, if prices are set on unit labour costs, then the way to decrease the price level relative to the rest of the world is to reduce unit labour costs faster than everywhere else or compress profit margins.
With constant profit margins, if the rate of growth in wages is faster than labour productivity growth then unit labour costs rise and vice-versa. As we saw in Chapter 10, the real wage is a composite of the nominal wage determined in the labour market as a result of bargains between workers and employers and the price level, which is determined by firms in the goods and services market.
The problem is that if a nation attempts to improve its international competitiveness by cutting nominal wages in order to reduce real wages and, in turn, unit labour costs it not only undermines aggregate demand but also may damage its productivity performance.
If, for example, workforce morale falls as a result of cuts to nominal wages, it is likely that industrial sabotage and absenteeism will rise, undermining labour productivity.
Further, overall business investment is likely to fall in response in reaction to the extended period of recession and wage cuts, which erodes future productivity growth. Thus there is no guarantee that this sort of strategy will lead to a significant fall in unit labour costs.
There is robust research evidence to support the notion that by paying high wages and offering workers secure employment, firms reap the benefits of higher productivity and the nation sees improvements in its international competitive as a result.
15.4 Aggregate demand and the external sector – revisited
In Chapter 8 we developed the income-expenditure framework to explain the way the factors that influence the production of real GDP (or real national income). The Chapter used the National Accounting concept of GDP at constant rather than current prices as our measure of economic activity. This built on the development of the concept of effective demand in Chapter 7 which had focused on expenditure and output in nominal (current price) terms.
Our income-expenditure framework in Chapter 8 we expressed the flow of total expenditure in any period as the sum of the following sources of spending:
  • Consumption by households or persons (C)
  • Investment spending by firms (I)
  • Government spending (G)
  • Export spending by foreigners (X) minus import spending by domestic residents (M), which we denote as net exports (NX) = (X – M).
From Chapter 8, we know that the equilibrium level of real national income (Y) is determined by aggregate demand (as long as prices remain unchanged), such that:
(15.2)      Y = E = C + I + G + (X – M) = Y
In this Section, we will develop a more detailed account of net exports – (X – M) – to take into account the influence of the real exchange rate and international competitiveness, which we discussed in Section 15.3.4.
In Chapter 8, our treatment of the determinants of net exports was deliberately very simple. We assumed that exports (X) were given in any particular period and determined by national income in the rest of the world, which are beyond the influence of the local economy in question.
We also assumed that a nation imports a fixed proportion of every dollar of national income. We called that proportion the marginal propensity to import (m) defined it as the extra import spending that occurs as a result of a dollar increase in national income.
In the previous section (Section 15.3.4) we learned movements in the real exchange rate, which is a summary measure of international competitiveness, influence net exports.
We learned that the higher is the value of the real exchange rate, the cheaper are locally-produced goods and services to foreign buyers, which means they will purchase more of them. In other words, exports rise when the real exchange rate rises.
Further, the higher is the value of the real exchange rate, the more expensive do foreign-produced goods and services become to local buyers, which means they will purchase less of them. In other words, imports fall when the real exchange rate rises.
There are many other factors in the real world that determine the demand for a nation’s exports and the demand by residents for imports, which we abstract from here in order to focus on the most significant determinants.
We are also abstracting from adjustment responses which are common in international trade. So a rise in the real exchange rate might only influence future exports once existing export contracts, which tend to be multi-year, expire. In the following analysis we are simplifying by assuming that the response between movements in the real exchange rate and changes in the flows of export and import spending are within the current period.
Take exports again. We now assume that the level of exports in any period is determined by the real exchange rate (R) and world income (Yw) and we write this in the following way:
(15.3)      X = λYw + θXR
which might appear at first inspection to be daunting but if you apply the techniques and understandings we developed in Chapter 4 Methods, Tools and Techniques you will grasp the meaning of this equation fairly easily.
In Equation (15.3) the Greek letters next to world income (Yw) and the real exchange rate (R) measure how responsive export spending is to changes in these variables. The coefficient, λ measures how much a nation’s export income rises as a result of a rise in world income. If you think about it, λ is, from the perspective of the rest of the world, its marginal propensity to import.
Similarly, the coefficient θX measures the responsiveness of exports to changes in the real exchange rate. Remember we are simplifying by assuming this response is immediate and exhausted in the current period. Later in the Chapter we will introduce lagged responses and consider the J-curve phenomenon, which has been identified by economists as better described the temporal response of exports to changing real exchange rates.
From our theoretical exegesis, we conjecture that both λ and θX will be positive. So when world income and the real exchange rate rises we expect exports to increase.
From the imports side, we assume that the level of imports that a nation purchases depends on both real national income (Y) and the real exchange rate (R). Thus:
(15.4)      M = mY + θMR
The coefficient m is the marginal propensity to import and we know its value lies between 0 and 1. The coefficient θM measures the responsiveness of imports to changes in the real exchange rate. We conjecture that this coefficient will be negative, which means that when the real exchange rate rises and the nation becomes more competitiveness and foreign goods become more expensive in local currency terms, import spending falls.
If we assume that domestic and foreign price levels are both constant, then movements in the real exchange rate, R, are mirrored in the nominal exchange rate, e. In other words, we could simply substitute the nominal exchange rate (e) for the real exchange rate (R) in Equations (15.3) and (15.4) without loss of understanding.
Thus Net Exports (NX) depends on real GDP, real World GDP and the real exchange rate, where the latter impact is the net result of the impact of the real exchange rate on exports and imports, respectively.
15.5 Trade in goods and services, product market equilibrium and the trade balance
In this Section, we continue to assume that Pw/P is constant, which means that domestic and foreign firms respond to increases in real aggregate demand by increasing real output rather than prices.
Spending on domestic goods determines real output and income. Total spending on domestically produced goods and services is equal to total spending by domestic residents minus their spending on imports plus foreign demand for exports.
Referring back to Chapter 8 and Chapter 12 we have the following behavioural equations, which comprise our theory of aggregate demand:
(15.5) Consumption function      C = C0 + cYd = C0 + c(1 – t)Y
(15.6) Investment function      I = I0 – bi
(15.7) Government spending      G
(15.8) Net exports      NX = λYw – mY + θe
Note that we have &theta is the net impact of changes in the real exchange rate, here expressed as the nominal exchange rate because we assume that Pw/P is constant.
We can substitute the individual behavioural equations into the equilibrium income Equation (15.2) such that:
(15.9)      Y = E = C0 + c(1 – t)Y + I0 – bi + G + λYw – mY + θe
Which, if we refer back to the way we simplified the equations to finally get Equation (8.16), we can write:
(15.10)      Y = 1/[1 – c(1 – t) + m] times [C0 + I0 – bi + G + λYw + θe]
This expression for equilibrium national income tells us that real GDP (Y) will be the sum of all the expenditure terms that do not directly depend on national income (those in the right-hand bracketed expression) times the multiplier (the first left-hand side term).
We can use this expression to study what happens to national income when one of the terms on the right-hand side of Equation (15.10) changes.
Conclusion
I will continue this Chapter next week.
Saturday Quiz
The Saturday Quiz will be back again tomorrow. It will be of an appropriate order of difficulty (-:
That is enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2012 Bill Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.

http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21709

External economy considerations – Part 3

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to complete the text by the end of this year. Comments are always welcome. Remember this is a textbook aimed at undergraduate students and so the writing will be different from my usual blog free-for-all. Note also that the text I post is just the work I am doing by way of the first draft so the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change once the two of us have edited it.

[This continues the discussion from rough draft of last week – External economy considerations – Part 2. At some point the pedagogy will be assessed and edited into a final draft]
15.5 Trade in goods and services, product market equilibrium and the trade balance
15.5.1 National income equilibrium with trade
In this Section, we continue to assume that Pw/P is constant, which means that domestic and foreign firms respond to increases in real aggregate demand by increasing real output rather than prices.
Spending on domestic goods determines real output and income. Total spending on domestically produced goods and services is equal to total spending by domestic residents minus their spending on imports plus foreign demand for exports.
Referring back to Chapter 8 and Chapter 12 we have the following behavioural equations, which comprise our theory of aggregate demand:
(15.5) Consumption function      C = C0 + cYd = C0 + c(1 – t)Y
(15.6) Investment function      I = I0 – bi
(15.7) Government spending      G
(15.8) Net exports      NX = λYw – mY + θe
Note that we have &theta is the net impact of changes in the real exchange rate, here expressed as the nominal exchange rate because we assume that Pw/P is constant.
We can substitute the individual behavioural equations into the equilibrium income Equation (15.2) such that:
(15.9)      Y = E = C0 + c(1 – t)Y + I0 – bi + G + λYw – mY + θe
Which, if we refer back to the way we simplified the equations to finally get Equation (8.16), we can write:
(15.10)      Y = 1/[1 – c(1 – t) + m] times [C0 + I0 – bi + G + λYw + θe]
This expression for equilibrium national income tells us that real GDP (Y) will be the sum of all the expenditure terms that do not directly depend on national income (those in the right-hand bracketed expression) times the multiplier (the first left-hand side term).
[NEW MATERIAL FOR THIS WEEK STARTS HERE]
15.5.2 The Net Exports function
Equation (15.8) represented net exports (NX) in terms of world income (Yw), domestic national income (Y) and the exchange rate (e). The latter term was the net impact on aggregate spending of an exchange rate change taking into account the different impacts on the individual components, exports and imports.
Figure 15.3 show the Net Exports function in terms of national income. Above the zero point on the vertical axis economy would be in trade surplus and below the zero point a trade deficit.
The Net Exports function is drawn against national income with the other variables in Equation (15.8), Yw and e, being held constant. If either of these variables changed the NX function would move up or down, depending on which of the variables changed and our assumptions about the parameters λ (for a change in world income) and θ (for a change in the nominal exchange rate).
We have assumed that λ > 0 so that an increase in world income levels boosts our exports and so net exports rises (other things equal). Further, in our discussion we assumed that the net impact on net exports of a change in the exchange rate, which is measured by θ is positive. This means that an exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance.
In other words we conclude that:
  • If world income rises (falls) the Net Exports function will move out (in) with unchanged slope.
  • If the exchange rate depreciates (appreciates) the the Net Exports function will move out (in) with unchanged slope.
If we assume both the shift variables (Yw and e) are constant, then as national income rises the trade balance will be negatively sloped – that is, move from a surplus to a deficit.
This is because as national income rises, imports rise via the marginal propensity to import (m). At point Y0, the net exports are balanced (exports equals imports).
To summarise, to the left of NX = 0, there is a trade surplus because, for a given level of exports, the lower level of income leads to a smaller expenditure on imports. To the right of NX = 0, there is a trade deficit, because at the higher level of income, imports are higher, relative to the fixed level of exports.
The slope of the Net Exports function is determined by the marginal propensity to import. The larger is the marginal propensity to import the steeper the slope. This is because the larger is the marginal propensity to import the greater the leakage from the expenditure stream per extra dollar of national income generated and the more quickly the trade balance moves into deficit at each income level.
Figure 15.3 Net exports as a function of real national income
We an use this understanding and that provided by the equilibrium national income expression (Equation 15.10) to study what happens to national income when world income and/or the exchange rate changes.
15.5.3 The impact on national income and net exports of a change in world income
We have seen (from Equation 15.10) that the equilibrium level of national income (and real GDP) is dependent on the level of domestic autonomous expenditure (C0 + I0 + G; the interest-rate sensitive component of investment (bi); the level of world income (Yw) and the real exchange rate (simplified to e because relative prices are fixed).
What happens to national income if either the level of world income or the exchange rate changes? In the analysis that follows we assume that the central bank supplies the monetary base at a constant discount rate, so that the interest rate charged by the commercial banks can be treated as constant.
Figure 15. 4 reintroduces the Aggregate Demand function from Chapter 8. Recall Figure 8.6 which showed that a rise in autonomous spending would lead to the Aggregate Demand function shifting up in parallel fashion (the shift in the intercept being measured by the change in autonomous spending). It is straightforward to generalise that insight into the current context by noting that the autonomous expenditure components are just the right hand terms in Equation !5.8 which interact with the spending multiplier.
In Figure 15.3 the trade balance line is denoted as NX = 0. With the other determinants constant (world income and the exchange rate), we noted that there was one level of national income where the trade account would be balanced (where imports equal exports). We denoted that level of national income as Y0 in Figure 15.3.
We can translate that knowledge into Figure 15.4 by drawing an NX0 = 0 line which corresponds to national income level Y0. All national income levels below Y0 will result in trade surpluses because imports will be lower than exports, other things equal. All national income levels above Y0 will generate trade deficits, because imports will be higher than exports, other things equal.
In our discussion of Figure 15.3, we also noted that the NX line would shift up if world income increased and down if world income decreased. In the context of Figure 15. 4, this means that the NX = 0 line will shift to the right if world income rises and to the left if world income falls.
The reason is simple. Start from national income level Y0, which initially coincides with a trade balance NX0 = 0. If world income rises, then at that national income level (Y0), exports will be higher than before and so the trade account would be surplus. Trade balance would require a boost to imports, which, in turn, would occur at higher levels of national income. We denote the new trade balance NX1 = 0 at Y1.
But we also know that a rise in world income will lead to the rest of the world importing more goods and services from the domestic economy which means exports rise. As we learned in Chapter 8, if any of the expenditure components rise, then the Aggregate Demand function shifts upwards.
Figure 15.3 denotes an initial point Y0, which just by coincidence is also a point of external balance. Aggregate demand is at E0.
The rise in exports pushes the Aggregate Demand function upwards to E1 and the new national income equilibrium occurs at Y*. At this point, real GDP is higher, national income is higher and we could show that employment would be higher and unemployment lower, once the cyclical labour supply adjustments that we studied in Chapter 10 were exhausted.
You will also note that the economy now has an external surplus, being left of the NX1 = 0 line (see Advanced Material for an explanation).
Figure 15.4 Equilibrium national income with a change in world income
By way of summary, a rise in world income induces a rise in foreign purchases of the economy’s exports, in the same way that the local economy’s import demand will be stimulated if its national income rises.
This has two effects: 
  • The Aggregate Demand line (E0) shifts upwards by the initial injection of aggregate demand from exports (ΔX), giving rise to a new level of equilibrium national income Y*. The increase in equilibrium national income is given by 1/[1 – c(1 – t) + m] times ΔX, given the constant interest rate. This is just a specific example of the general result that the aggregate demand schedule shifts in response to changes in autonomous spending;
  • The NX = 0 line shifts to the right from NX0 = 0 to NX1 = 0.
  • Imports rise too because the shift in the Aggregate Demand line (to E1) means that income levels are higher. But the shift in the NX = 0 line is greater than the increase in equilibrium income. Thus NX rise, but by less than the rise in exports. This result holds even if domestic interest rates rise.
Advanced Material – An increase in World Income leads to a rise in Net Exports
Prior to the rise in world income, the level of real GDP, Y0 is consistent with a balance of trade, NX0 = 0. 
Assuming no change in the exchange rate, we can write this as:
(15.11)      X0 = M0 + mY0
where the M0 is a constant quantity of imports at the current constant exchange rate.
If we denote ΔX = λΔYw, which is the increase in exports resulting from the rise in world income, then national income Y1 at which net exports are zero, satisfies:
(15.12)      X0 + ΔX = M0 + mY1
If we subtract Equation (15.11) from (15.12) we get:
(15.13)      ΔX = mY1 – mY0 = mΔY‘
So the change in the level of real GDP, such that net exports are again zero is given by:
(15.14)      ΔY‘ = ΔX/m
On the other hand, the increase in equilibrium real GDP (national income) resulting from an autonomous increase in exports (driven by the rise in world income) is given by (from Equation 15.10):
(15.154)      ΔY = 1/[1 – c(1 – t) + m] times ΔX
This magnitude is less than ΔX/m because [1 – c(1 – t) + m] > 0.
Thus at the new national equilibrium, Y*, net exports are positive – that is, in surplus.
You should be able to work out what would happen if there was a world recession and world income levels fell. In this case, the local economy will experience a drop in aggregate demand because exports will be lower than previously and national income will fall.
The NX = 0 line also shifts to the left and if the economy was, for simplicity, experiencing a trade balance, then the new equilibrium income level will be associated with a trade deficit (the fall in exports is greater than the fall in imports).
MORE COMING.
Conclusion
NEXT WEEK I WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE TEACHING MATERIAL FOR CAPITAL FLOWS AND THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT AND DISCUSS POLICY OPTIONS
Saturday Quiz
The Saturday Quiz will be back again tomorrow. It will be of an appropriate order of difficulty (-:
That is enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2012 Bill Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25760

External economy considerations – Part 4

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime in 2013. Our (very incomplete) textbook homepage – Modern Monetary Theory and Practice – has draft chapters and contents etc in varying states of completion. Comments are always welcome. Note also that the text I post here is not intended to be a blog-style narrative but constitutes the drafting work I am doing – that is, the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change as the drafting process evolves.

Chapter 21 Policy in an Open Economy: Exchange Rates, Balance of Payments, and Competitiveness
This material updates the work already done on Chapter 21 that appeared in the following blogs:
The material was previously in Chapter 15 but some re-arrangement of the sequence of the pedagogy has resulted in this discussion now becoming Chapter 21.
The earlier draft had some gaps and some sections to complete which is what I am doing today. The sections I am working on today are not in any particular sequential order.
21.2 The Balance of Payments
Residents (households, firms, and governments) of every nation conduct economic transactions with residents of other nations and the record of all these transactions is recorded in the international accounts for each nation. The international accounts are made up of a number of component accounts (IMF, 2011:7):
  • The international investment position (IIP) which “shows at a point in time the value of: financial assets of residents of an economy that are claims on nonresidents or are gold bul- lion held as reserve assets; and the liabilities of residents of an economy to nonresidents” (IMF, 2011:7).
  • The balance of payments which is “a statistical statement that summarizes transactions between residents and nonresidents during a period. It consists of the goods and services account, the primary income account, the secondary income account, the capital account, and the financial account”(IMF, 2011:7).
  • All “other changes in financial assets and liabilities accounts” (valuation changes etc) (IMF, 2011:7).
The Balance of Payments and related accounts are compiled by national statistical agencies (such as the UK OFfice of National Statistics, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis) using international standard set down in the International Monetary Fund’s <Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) (IMF, 2011), augmented by the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA). While there are variations in terminology used by different nations the principles are universal. 
The IMF Manual is seen as the “standard framework for statistics on the transactions and positions between an economy and the rest of the world” (IMF, 2011: 1).
The IMF define the Balance of Payments as:
… a statistical statement that summarizes transactions between residents and nonresidents during a period. It consists of the goods and services account, the primary income account, the secondary income account, the capital account, and the financial account.
The differentiating feature of these different accounts relates to “the nature of the economic resources provided and received” by the nation (IMF, 2011: 9).
Like any accounting framework, the Balance of Payments is based on a double-entry debt and credit system of record. Every transaction that is recorded has two equal and offsetting entries, each of which corresponds to the inflow and outflow of funds.
Credit entries consist of transactions where foreign residents make payments to local residents. Examples include exports of goods and services, income recievable from investments abroad, reductions in external assets, or increases in external liability.
Debit entries consist of transactions where local residents have to make payments to foreign residents. Examples include imports of goods and services, income payable, increases in assets, or a decrease in liabilities.
Balance of Payment examples
Example 1: Export of goods and services
An Australian resident sells $1000 worth of goods to a resident in the US. 
The Balance of Payments in Australia will record:
  • Credit – Exports $1000
  • Debit – Currency $1000 – increase in financial assets
Example 2: Australian resident borrows from a US bank
An Australian resident takes out a loan for $1000 from a US bank.
The Balance of Payments in Australia will record:
  • Credit – Loan $1000 – increase in liabilities
  • Debit – Currency $1000 – increase in financial assets
Table 21.1 shows how the Australian Bureau of Statistics presents the Balance of Payments data for Australia. Observe the heading structure: Current Account and Capital and Financial Account being the major sub-accounts of the Balance of Payments. Then within each of the sub-accounts are a number of other sub-headings which record different elements of the transactions between Australia and the rest of the world.
We will briefly discuss the Current Account and the Capital and Financial Account.
Table 21.1 Australian Balance of Payments, various years, current prices
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat No. 5302. Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, June, 2013.
The Current Account
The current account records all current transactions between a nation’s residents and non-residents in goods and services, primary income and secondary income.
The goods and services or balance of trade records “transactions in items that are outcomes of production activities” (IMF, 2011: 149) and reflect exchanges between the local economy and the rest of the world. The data is typically collected from information collected from exporters and importers by the nation’s customs department.
Exports and imports of goods relate to movable or tangible goods, while services are considered to be all products other than tangible goods. Services include items such as banking and insurance, transport, and export education. While items bought by tourists while on holiday may be tangible, all such expenditure is recorded as services under the IMF conventions used. 
Primary income (IMF, 2011: 183):
… represents the return that accrues to institutional units for their contribution to the production process or for the provision of financial assets and renting natural resources to other institutional units.
There are two categories of primary income accounted for:
  • Income that is associated with the production process, for example, wages paid, taxes and subsidies on production. If a resident is paid for labour by a non-resident then primary income is deemed to have been earned and vice versa.
  • Income that is associated with the ownership of financial assets, for example, dividends and interest.
These flows are accounted for in the primary account if they are current. You will appreciate that they impact on the measure of national income in the national accounts.
The secondary income account relates to current transfers between residents and non-residents which do not add to national income, but rather, involve redistributions of income between nations. There is nothing of economic value that is exchanged in return for a secondary income transfer.
Some of the typical secondary income account transactions include personal transfers (remittances to or from overseas), charitable contributions, social benefits (such as, pension payments to or from abroad), and current taxes on income and wealth.
Economists are often focused on the current account because of the transactions it records are of direct relevance to the determination of national income. Our earlier discussions about the sectoral balances and the income-expenditure determination all explicitly considered the current account of the balance of payments.
Exports (injections) and imports (drains) are key components of aggregate demand.
The Capital Account and Financial Account
While the current account of a national tends to focus on transactions with the rest of the world, which impact on the measurement of national output and income, the capital account capital account is the financial side of these transactions.
What would happen if a nation exported more than they imported? Ignoring the primary and secondary accounts for the moment, the net outflow of real goods and services would be accompanied by accumulating financial claims against the rest of the world. This is because the demand for the nation’s currency to meet the payments necessary for the exports would exceed the supply of the currency to the foreign exchange market to facilitate the import expenditure.
How might this imbalance be resolved? There are a number of ways possible. A most obvious solution would be for foreigners to borrow funds from the domestic residents. This would lead to a net accumulation of foreign claims (assets) held by residents. This item would be recorded in the capital account as a debit because it enhances the capacity of non-residents to make transactions in the local economy.
Another solution would be for non-residents to draw down local bank balances, which means that net liabilities to non-residents would decline.
The capital account thus records the “credit and debit entries for nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers between residents and nonresidents. It records acquisitions and disposals of nonproduced nonfinancial assets, such as land sold to embassies and sales of leases and licenses, as well as capital transfers, that is, the provision of resources for capital purposes by one party without anything of economic value being supplied as a direct return to that party.” (IMF, 2011: 9).
The financial account is a balancing account, recording the “net acquisition and disposal of financial assets and liabilities” (IMF, 2011: 10).
It we add the current and capital account together then the result “represents the net lending (surplus) or net borrowing (deficit) by the economy with the rest of the world” (IMF, 2011: 10).
This difference is the net balance of the financial account, which details the funding of the net lending or borrowing from non-residents.
Reference
International Monetary Fund (2011) Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), Washington – Available from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/pdf/bpm6.pdf (BPM6).
Conclusion
I WILL FINISH THIS CHAPTER NEXT WEEK BY FOCUSING ON CAPITAL FLOWS, THE OPTIONS FACING A NATION WITH SPECULATIVE ATTACKS ON ITS CURRENCY, THE ISSUE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS etc
I WILL ALSO CONSIDER THE DEBATE AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DRIVES THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT OR VICE-VERSA
Saturday Quiz
The Saturday Quiz will be back again tomorrow. It will be of an appropriate order of difficulty (-:
That is enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2012 Bill Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.


http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25846

External economy considerations – Part 5

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime in 2013. Our (very incomplete) textbook homepage – Modern Monetary Theory and Practice – has draft chapters and contents etc in varying states of completion. Comments are always welcome. Note also that the text I post here is not intended to be a blog-style narrative but constitutes the drafting work I am doing – that is, the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change as the drafting process evolves.

Chapter 21 Policy in an Open Economy: Exchange Rates, Balance of Payments, and Competitiveness
This material updates the work already done on Chapter 21 that appeared in the following blogs:
The earlier draft had some gaps and some sections to complete which is what I am doing today. The sections I am working on today are not in any particular sequential order.
21.6 The relationship between the Current Account and the Capital Account of the Balance of Payments
Economists have long debated the relationship between the current account and the capital account. From a purely accounting perspective, we know that the current account balance equals the capital and financial account balance (ignoring the statistical discrepancy that the national statisticians report to indicate measurement error).
But this leaves a number of questions unanswered. Two questions that have dominated the public policy debates since the collapse of the Bretton Woods currency arrangements are:
  • Is the current account a problem that policy makers should address? Can the current account be too large?
  • Does the current account cause the capital account or vice versa?
Both questions have relevance for Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) policy prescriptions and are worth exploring in some depth.
A nation that is running a current account deficit will be accumulate financial liabilities to the rest of the world. See the Advanced Material Box – The link between the Current Account and Capital Flows – for a formal derivation of this result.
The current account deficit arises in an accounting sense because the saving of the nation are less than the sum of its investment expenditure and net public spending and it offsets the difference by becoming a net borrower from the rest of the world.
Thus a current account deficit is equivalent to a net inflow of foreign investment, which is recorded in the capital account. This accounting perspective provides no insights into causality – that is, whether the behaviour captured by the current account is responsible for or a reflection of the behaviour measured in the capital account.
The popular debate about the desirability of current account deficits often begins with an observation that domestic jobs are lost if a nation if running large trade deficits (for example, reflecting a preference for foreign-produced automobiles over locally-produces vehicles). However, the debate often ignores where the net capital inflow, which matches $-for-$, the current account deficit goes. Does it manifest as increased productive capacity and employment or not? We will return to this issue later.
The mainstream macroeconomics debate is dominated by two broad positions on the issue of whether a current account deficit should be the focus of policy or not.
One side of the debate is popularly known as the “Lawson Doctrine”, so-called after a famous speech the British Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Thatcher Government, Nigel Lawson presented to the IMF in September 1988 about the concerns that had been raised about the state of the British balance of payments at the time.
Lawson captured the views that had previous made by Australian economist Max Corden, among others, who argued that, in the absence of “government distortions” (for example, tariffs etc), the current account deficit is largely the result of rational spending and saving decisions taken by private households and firms in pursuit of their own interests. Thus, there is no reason for the government to intervene. This view was also strongly put by another Australian economist John Pitchford (1989a and b).
The alternative view expressed by mainstream economists is that, notwithstanding that current account deficits may reflect private saving and investment choices, there are significant distortions that can lead to excessive current account positions, which can undermine the financial stability of a nation and create so-called global imbalances that should be resolved.
This has been a particularly prominent argument during the global financial crisis.
Some of the arguments raised to counter the view that current accounts do not matter include the following. First, while on the surface these maximising private sector choices might be optimal, closer examination reveals that there remains significant public sector exposure, which should be taken into account.
For example, consider the case of domestic banks accumulating ever-increasing foreign liabilities after financial deregulation occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. Who is responsible for those liabilities? Clearly, in the first instance it is the private banks and their shareholders. But as we learned in the global financial crisis, the “too big to fail” doctrine meant that the private losses were shifted onto government and placed stress on fiscal policy and accelerated the move to fiscal austerity.
Second, the global financial crisis also taught us that the risk assessment capacity of the private sector is imperfect and this led to excess borrowing in foreign financial markets by banks and corporations. The resulting collapse of many financial assets spilled over into the real economy with substantial job and income losses being incurred by the economy in general. The capacity of the private sector to act in the best interests of society is limited (that is, private benefits and costs diverge significantly from social benefits and costs).
[TO BE CONTINUED]
Advanced Material: The link between the Current Account and Capital Flows
In Chapter 5, we introduced the Sectoral Balances View of the National Accounts, which extended our understanding of the relationship between the government and the non-government sector.
The framework can also help us understand why the Current Account balance is equivalent to net capital inflows recorded in the Capital Account of the Balance of Payments.
We know that Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of all the products and services produced in a period by productive inputs supplied by the residents of a particular country. It is the sum of income accruing to these local productive inputs.
It differs from Gross domestic product (GDP), which is the total market value of output produced in a period within a country. This measure ignores the question of ownership of the productive inputs (foreign or local).
To see the difference, take an Australian resident who incomes from an investment they have overseas. This income will not be recorded in Australia’s GDP measure but will add to the GNP figure.
Conversely, the production for an American-owned firm in Australia will add to Australia’s GDP but not its GNP.
Thus, a nation such as Ireland, which encouraged a substantial foreign presence via lower corporate tax rates, will typically finds that its GDP growth is higher than its GNP, because significant income flows are repatriated to foreign owners of productive capital.
So GNP includes net income received from assets abroad.
Total GDP is defined as:
(21.16)      GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
(see Chapters 3 and 5 for definition of terms).
Total GNP (or Gross National Income) is defined:
(21.17)      GNP = GDP + NFI
where NFI is net factor income received from abroad, It is the difference between income payments received by domestically-owned productive inputs located abroad and the income payments to foreign-owned productive inputs located domestically.
NFI is comprised of:
  • Net dividends paid to owners of capital, interest paid on debt liabilities, rent to residents owning assets abroad.
  • Net wages to residents working abroad.
GNP (or GNI) thus represents the total income earned by a nation over a particular period. Augmenting this earned income are net unilateral transfers (NFT), comprising remittances and foreign aid, which, if positive, expand the available total income available for a nation.
The Current Account balance (CA) is thus equal to net exports plus net factor income plus net unilateral transfers:
(21.18)      CA = (X – M) + NFI + NFT
The Current Account will be in surplus if CA > 0 and deficit if CA < 0. For example, the Current Account will be in deficit if a deficit on the balance of trade in goods and services (X < M) is not offset by (NFI + NFT) > 0.
The GNI received by the productive inputs can be used for:
(21.19)      GNP = C + S + T + NFI + NFT
Noting the equivalence of GNI (as defined) and GNP, we can equate the two perspectives of the national accounting expression for GNP to get (after simplifying and re-arranging):
(21.20)      (X – M) – NFI – NFT = (S – I) + (T – G)
or:
(21.20a)      CA = (S – I) + (T – G)
which says that the Current Account balance equals the surplus of private saving over investment (S – I) and the government balance (T – G).
The flow of saving in each period (S) can be offset by private investment (I), used to purchase government debt (that is, a budget deficit (G – T), given that under current institutional governments match their net spending with debt-issuance) or purchase foreign assets (FA).
The net foreign assets owned by a nation are the difference between its foreign assets (share, bonds, real productive assets) and foreign liabilities (real and financial domestic assets owned by foreign interests).
Thus:
(21.21)      S = I + (G – T) + FA
Thus, when domestic saving is greater than domestic investment and the budget deficit, the nation is able to accumulate foreign assets, and vice versa.
Bringing the information in Equations (21.20a) and (21.21) together we get:
(21.22)      FA = (S – I) – (G – T) = (S – I) + (T – G) = CA
Thus the net purchase of foreign assets (FA) is equal to the Current Account balance (CA). If the Current Account is in deficit, then the nation has negative purchases of FA, which means it is increasing its foreign liabilities (that is, drawing on foreign saving).
If the Current Account is in surplus, then the nation has positive purchases of FA, which means it is using is accumulating foreign assets and increasings its national wealth.
[TO BE CONTINUED]
References:
Corden, W.M. (1977) Inflation, Exchange Rates and the International System, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Corden, W.M. (1994) Economic Policy, Exchange Rates and the International System, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
International Monetary Fund (1988) Summary Proceedings of the Forty-Third Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors International Monetary Fund, Washington, particulary pages 78-85.
Pitchford, J. (1989a) ‘A Sceptical View of Australia’s Current Account and Debt Problem’, The Australian Economic Review, 86, 5–14.
Pitchford, J. (1989b) ‘Does Australia Really Have a Current Account Problem?, Policy Magazine, June 6, 1989 – http://www.cis.org.au/images/stories/policy-magazine/1989-winter/1989-5-2-john-pitchford.pdf.
Conclusion
[TO BE CONTINUED – ISSUES INCLUDE THE OPTIONS FACING A NATION WITH SPECULATIVE ATTACKS ON ITS CURRENCY, THE ISSUE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS etc]
Saturday Quiz
The Saturday Quiz will be back again tomorrow. It will be of an appropriate order of difficulty (-:
That is enough for today!
(c) Copyright 2012 Bill Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.

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