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336/ HYMAN P. MINSKY
advantages: with rural areas as a continuing source of labor, the advanta
geously located low-wage industries may in fact be operating with a huge
reservoir of labor, responsive to job opportunities at unchanging mark-ups
over rural incomes
As measured by the coefficient of variation, the spread of hourly earn
ings decreased slightly between 1960 and 1966, after increasing between
1948-1953 and 1953-1960. In spite of this, the coefficient of variation for
weekly earnings increased between 1960 and 1966. Thus, hours worked
were positively correlated with earnings so that the distribution of weekly
earnings had a wider range than the distribution of hourly earnings. Inas
much as it is earnings over a period, not the hourly rate, that is important
in income distribution, the minor drawing together of hourly rates that
occurred during the expansion is not especially significant
Leading Sectors in Generating Aggregate Demand and
Income Distribution
Aggregate demand has a structure which, in turn, generates the partic-
ular (including regional) demands for products and factors. The govern
ment impact upon aggregate demand also has a structure. As long as in
come distribution is a "minor" or, better, an "unmentionable" policy goal
then the impact upon income distribution of the particular structure of
government programs can be ignored. Once the achievement of some
maximum inequality becomes a recognized social imperative, then the
way in which government affects income distribution becomes a factor in
policy decisions
number of factors have combined to create the "shortages in the
midst of surpluses" labor markets of the past 10 to 15 years, and the resul
tant spreading of relative incomes. One has been the peculiar pattern of
government demand. It is only necessary to note how government spend
ing on research and development has grown and to combine this with the
growth of spending on education to recognize that leading sectors, in
terms of the growth of aggregate demand, have generated initial demand
for highly skilled professional and technical labor. Even though to a large
extent the impact of government has been of a stop-go nature, the re
search-plus-education growth has been fairly steady
A second factor in determining the changes in relative incomes has
been the rapid migration from rural areas, in particular the movement of
Negroes from the rural South [7]. This has generated a large-nay, an in
finitely elastic-supply of unskilled and semiskilled workers in the cities
The disturbing results reported by Batchelder [2], that Negro male in
comes deteriorated relative to white male incomes between 1950 and 1960
within the relevant cells, indicates that the data on average wages by in
dustry may obscure increasing spreads of incomes within each industry
EFFECTs oF AGGREGATE Demand SHirrs / 337
A third factor tending to spread relative earnings has been the stop-go
nature of many facets of the economy since world war II. Over this pe
riod, on the whole, the American economy has done well. However, this
overall "smoothness" has been the result of a series of stop-go develop
ments in various sectors. Not only has the country engaged in two "minor
wars, but also the leading sectors have shifted with great rapidity from
general defense, to missiles, to space, to private investment. Each time a
new government program, be it highways or aid to education or moon
shots, gets under way, local excess demand for labor is generated
The impact of new leading sectors upon wages is different from a rise
in employment that takes the form of rehiring previously employed work-
ers and from the expansion of conventional industries. Whenever local de-
mand for labor exceeds supply, wages rise [5, 10]. In addition, wage in-
creases in a sector spill over to other sectors, even in the face of overall
labor market slack. This is so because productivity of labor is a function
of "morale," and a decline in relative wages adversely affects morale.
However, in the presence of slack, wage increases in the following sectors
will be lower than in the leading sectors.
If a series of stop-go shocks occurs and if these shocks all have their
major initial labor market impact upon a restricted set of labor markets,
then the wage in this restricted set will rise relative to others. If these re
peated impacts occur upon what are already high-wage industries and oc-
cupations, then the distribution of income will be adversely affected
A test of whether the pattern of aggregate demand creation has a
fected the distribution of income, by a succession of such impacts upon
the demand for particular classes of workers, is needed. Detailed occupa-
tional income data and a way of transforming each period's leading sector
into demand for labor in particular categories are required for such a test.
Policy Suggestions
From the above, I extract two propositions relevant to policy forma
tion:
1. The American economy as presently organized is not capable of
achieving and sustaining tight full employment
2. Within the employment limitations of the economy, there is no sig
nificant tendency toward a narrowing of the spread of relative income
from labor
I add to the above that a narrowing of the spread of income from labor
is necessary
If the post-World War II pattern of shifting leading sectors determin
ing aggregate demand leads to perverse changes in the distribution of in
come, then we ought to consider changing the pattern of leading sectors.
338 / HYmAN P. MINSKY
A suggestion of real merit is that the government become an employer of
last resort.
One attribute of such a tap employer is that, when the terms upon
which it will employ are set, the minimum wage for all is determined
There is no longer any question about the "coverage" of minimum wage
legislation. In addition, the minimum wage set in this manner does not
have an adverse effect upon employment, as may be true for the present
minimum wage legislation. The relative size of the wage set by the em
ployer of last resort determines the division of the labor force between the
private and the public sectors.
In a world where nominal wages are expected to increase each year
some improvement factor needs to be included in the terms upon which
the employer of last resort hires. If the improvement factor for the em
loyer of last resort rises at a faster rate than average and above-average
wages, the range of relative wages decreases. In time, if such differential
rates of change are sustained, a target ratio between the minimum and
average can be achieved.
To the extent that the high-wage workers' nominal income rises at some
roductivity rate," the low-wage workers' nominal income will need to
rise at some faster rate: there may be an inflationary bias in an incomes
policy that takes as one of its imperatives the achievement of greater
equality. In addition, it will be necessary to restrain profits and invest-
ment; in particular, the highly destabilizing tendency for investment de
mand to explode will have to be brought under control.
Although we currently view the crisis in income distribution as center
ing around the urban ghettos, much of poverty is rural. An employer of
last resort, willing and able to hire all who offer to work, will have a large
impact on the poorer rural areas. One effect of such a national employ
ment policy will be to slow down the pace of migration to the urban com
plexes. Inasmuch as many of the urban problems are related to the rapid
rate of migration, such a retaining effect following from an employer o
last resort will be an added virtue.
Much experimentation with tap employment policies, and its equiva
lent, the creation of programs which will have their major initial impact
upon present unemployed labor, will be needed. However, the objective
is clear: it is to take the labor force as it is and make sure that fitting jobs
are available. Instead of the demand for the low-wage worker trickling
down from the demand for the high-wage worker, such a policy should
result in increments of demand for present high-wage workers "bubbling
up" from the demand for low-wage workers.
References
1] ANDErsON, W. H. LockE, "Trickling Down: The Relationship Between Eco
nomic Growth and the Extent of Poverty Among American Families," Quart. J
Econ. 78:511-524, Nov. 1964.
[2 BATCHELDER, ALAn B., "Decline in the Relative Income of Negro Men," Quart
J. Econ. 78:525-548, Nov. 1964
[3] GREENE, CHRISTOPHER, Negative Taxes and the Poverty Problem, Washington,
Brookings Institution, 1967.
(4] KALDOR, NICHOLAS, "Economic Growth and the Problem of Inflation," PartI
Economica, N.S., 26:287-298, Nov. 1959.
[5] LIPSEY, RicHARD G. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of
Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A Further
Analysis," Economica, N.S., 27:1-31, Feb. 1960
[6] MINSKY, HyMAN P., The Role of Employment Policy,"in Poverty in America
ed. Margaret S. Gordon, San Francisco, Chandler Publishing Company, 1965,
BriaN, AND DALE HATHAWAY, The Movement of Labor Between
Farm and Non-Farm Jobs, Michigan State University Agr. Exp. Sta. Res. Bul.
1
Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957," Economica
[9] Ross, A. M., AND W. GoLDNER, "Forces Affecting the Interindustry Wage
Structure," Quart. J. Econ. 64:254-281, May 1950.
[10] ScHULTZE, CHARLES, "Recent Inflation in the United States," Study Paper 1,
in Study of Employment Growth and Price Levels, Joint Economic Committee,
U.S. Congress, Sept. 1959.
0
Stanford University Press, 1964.
[12] SIMONs, HENRY C., Personal Income Taxation: The Definition of Income as a
Problem of Fiscal Policy, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1938.
Economic Policy," in Economic Policy for a Free Society, Chicago, University of
Postwar United States," Quart. J. Econ. 79:73-97, Feb. 196
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