Modern Monetary Theory | IGM Forum 2019/3/13 [42人の経済学者へのアンケー ト]

Modern Monetary Theory | IGM Forum 2019/3/13 [42人の経済学者へのアンケート]

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory

Wednesday, March 13th, 2019 12:44 pm

Modern Monetary Theory

Question A: Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt. 

Responses
 

© 2019. Initiative on Global Markets.

2%

52%

36%

0%

0%

0%

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2019. Initiative on Global Markets.

72%

28%

0%

0%

0%

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Question B: Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money. 

Responses
 

© 2019. Initiative on Global Markets.

7%

57%

26%

0%

0%

0%

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2019. Initiative on Global Markets.

76%

24%

0%

0%

0%

Source: IGM Economic Experts Panel
www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

Download supplemental information on Modern Monetary Theory here.
http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-13-EEP-Modern-Monetary-Theory.pdf

Question A Participant Responses

Participant	University	Vote	Confidence	Comment	Bio/Vote History
Daron Acemoglu	MIT	Disagree	4		Bio/Vote History
Alberto Alesina	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Joseph Altonji	Yale	Strongly Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
Alan Auerbach	Berkeley	Strongly Disagree	9		Bio/Vote History
David Autor	MIT	No Opinion			Bio/Vote History
Katherine Baicker	Chicago	Disagree	3		Bio/Vote History
Abhijit Banerjee	MIT	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History
Marianne Bertrand	Chicago	Disagree	1		Bio/Vote History
Markus Brunnermeier	Princeton	Strongly Disagree	9	see numerous historical examples: Germany in 1920s, Latin America, ...	Bio/Vote History
Raj Chetty	Stanford	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History
Judith Chevalier	Yale	Strongly Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
David Cutler	Harvard	Disagree	3		Bio/Vote History
Angus Deaton	Princeton	Strongly Disagree	9		Bio/Vote History
Darrell Duffie	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	The present value of debt issuances is equal to the present value of debt payments. So, borrowing more now means paying more later.	Bio/Vote History
Aaron Edlin	Berkeley	Disagree	7	Less worry is not the same as no worry	Bio/Vote History
Barry Eichengreen	Berkeley	Strongly Disagree	10	The "not worry" phrase in the question is a bit vague admittedly.	Bio/Vote History
Liran Einav	Stanford	Disagree	5		Bio/Vote History
Ray Fair	Yale	Strongly Disagree	10	Surely inflation might be a problem.	Bio/Vote History
Amy Finkelstein	MIT	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History
Austan Goolsbee	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	8	‘Always’ makes an ass out of you and me (reminding for a friend)	Bio/Vote History
Michael Greenstone	Chicago	Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
Robert Hall	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	Governments cannot create money under current monetary institutions, because the central bank keeps reserves and currency at par	Bio/Vote History
Oliver Hart	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	8	This kind of behavior can quickly lead to inflation or even hyperinflation once the economy is close to full capacity.	Bio/Vote History
Bengt Holmström	MIT	Disagree	8		Bio/Vote History
Caroline Hoxby	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Hilary Hoynes	Berkeley	Disagree	8		Bio/Vote History
Kenneth Judd	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	A government may be able to do this once but doing this systematically will make it impossible to sell bonds in the future.	Bio/Vote History
Steven Kaplan	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	10	At some point it becomes untenable and the country becomes Venezuela or Zimbabwe.	Bio/Vote History
Anil Kashyap	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	10	Money financing yields some seigniorage, but also inflation and the inflation has costs and there are limits to seigniorage capacity	Bio/Vote History
Pete Klenow	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	-see background information here	Bio/Vote History
Jonathan Levin	Stanford	Disagree	5		Bio/Vote History
Eric Maskin	Harvard	Disagree	7	Printing money causes its own problems, e.g., the risk of inflation	Bio/Vote History
William Nordhaus	Yale	Strongly Disagree	9	Obviously, they should worry. However, the open economy issues are less pressing, particularly with flexible exchange rates.	Bio/Vote History
Emmanuel Saez	Berkeley	Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
Larry Samuelson	Yale	Disagree	6	Deficits can be financed by creating money, but still have disadvantages as well as advantages that should be carefully considered.	Bio/Vote History
José Scheinkman	Columbia University	Strongly Disagree	9		Bio/Vote History
Richard Schmalensee	MIT	Disagree	4		Bio/Vote History
Carl Shapiro	Berkeley	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Robert Shimer	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	8	The real value of the money supply is bounded above. At some point, this must create inflation.	Bio/Vote History
James Stock	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	6		Bio/Vote History
Richard Thaler	Chicago	Disagree	3		Bio/Vote History
Christopher Udry	Northwestern	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant	University	Vote	Confidence	Comment	Bio/Vote History
Daron Acemoglu	MIT	Disagree	5		Bio/Vote History
Alberto Alesina	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Joseph Altonji	Yale	Strongly Disagree	8		Bio/Vote History
Alan Auerbach	Berkeley	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
David Autor	MIT	No Opinion			Bio/Vote History
Katherine Baicker	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	3		Bio/Vote History
Abhijit Banerjee	MIT	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History
Marianne Bertrand	Chicago	Disagree	1		Bio/Vote History
Markus Brunnermeier	Princeton	Strongly Disagree	9		Bio/Vote History
Raj Chetty	Stanford	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History
Judith Chevalier	Yale	Strongly Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
David Cutler	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	5		Bio/Vote History
Angus Deaton	Princeton	Strongly Disagree	8		Bio/Vote History
Darrell Duffie	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	If this were true, each such country could finance the purchase of all of the world's output, which is obviously impossible.	Bio/Vote History
Aaron Edlin	Berkeley	Disagree	9	There are limits to capacity and no limits to wants.	Bio/Vote History
Barry Eichengreen	Berkeley	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Liran Einav	Stanford	Disagree	5		Bio/Vote History
Ray Fair	Yale	Strongly Disagree	10	At some point the system breaks down.	Bio/Vote History
Amy Finkelstein	MIT	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History
Austan Goolsbee	Chicago	Disagree	9	Symbiotic: you tell them where to send it and they tell you where to go	Bio/Vote History
Michael Greenstone	Chicago	Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
Robert Hall	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Oliver Hart	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	8	Same answer as above	Bio/Vote History
Bengt Holmström	MIT	Strongly Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
Caroline Hoxby	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10		Bio/Vote History
Hilary Hoynes	Berkeley	No Opinion			Bio/Vote History
Kenneth Judd	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	Friedman wrote a book "There's No Such Thing As a Free Lunch." He also meant road or bridge or army or school or ANYTHING!	Bio/Vote History
Steven Kaplan	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	10	Same answer as previous question.	Bio/Vote History
Anil Kashyap	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	10	lots of countries have proved this to be impossible	Bio/Vote History
Pete Klenow	Stanford	Strongly Disagree	10	-see background information here	Bio/Vote History
Jonathan Levin	Stanford	Disagree	5		Bio/Vote History
Eric Maskin	Harvard	Disagree	5	There will come a point where the currency is so debased that further spending becomes difficult if not impossible.	Bio/Vote History
William Nordhaus	Yale	Strongly Disagree	8	At some point hyperinflation would break it all apart. However, this is an irrelevant question in an open world.	Bio/Vote History
Emmanuel Saez	Berkeley	Strongly Disagree	7		Bio/Vote History
Larry Samuelson	Yale	Disagree	6	Creating money can finance a great deal of spending, but incidents of hyperinflation, collapse and other crises indicate there are limits.	Bio/Vote History
José Scheinkman	Columbia University	Strongly Disagree	9	This is even more nonsense than (a).	Bio/Vote History
Richard Schmalensee	MIT	Disagree	4		Bio/Vote History
Carl Shapiro	Berkeley	Disagree	8		Bio/Vote History
Robert Shimer	Chicago	Strongly Disagree	8		Bio/Vote History
James Stock	Harvard	Strongly Disagree	6		Bio/Vote History
Richard Thaler	Chicago	No Opinion		I don't like this question. I guess it is true in some sense, but surely inflation looms at some point.	Bio/Vote History
Christopher Udry	Northwestern	Did Not Answer			Bio/Vote History