569 名無しさん＠お腹いっぱい。[] 2019/04/11(木) 12:36:24.50 ID:v5GHOJ0n
高田 太久吉
https://twitter.com/tiikituukahana/status/1116180952357543936?s=21
誰が 経済危機を 予想したのか
…金融恐慌勃発からまだ日が浅い2008年11月、ロンドン大学で開催された経済学者の集まりに出席したエリザベス
英女王は、君主にふさわしい率直さで、「なぜあなた方の誰もこの危機に気付かなかったのですか」と尋ねた。
これに対して、出席した経済学者の誰一人、女王が納得できる説明を即座に与えることができなかった。 しかし、
これほどの経済危機の接近を文字通り世界の経済学者の誰一人予測できなかった、あるいは、危機に先立って、
経済学者の間から何一つ傾聴に値する警告が発せられなかったと言明するのは、いうまでもなく正確ではない。
世界の数多い経済学者の中には、鋭い現実感覚と洞察力を備え、危機の接近に警鐘を鳴らした若干の人たちがもちろん
存在した。 危機の比較的早い段階で、経済学者の予測の実績を詳しく調査した Bezemer(2009)によれば、
2001 年以降、米国の 住宅バブルの大規模な崩壊の危険性を指摘する声が経済学者や経済ジャーナリストの間で
上がり始めたが、2007年から 2010の 間にバブル崩壊とそれに伴う景気後退が予想されることを何らかの論拠と
データを示して指摘した人物として、11 人が挙げられている。ただし、これらの内1件は 2名の 共同論文として公
表されたもので、これを2名と 数えると名、人名の合計は12人になる。
Bezemer(2009)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227411453_Understanding_Financial_Crisis_Through_Accounting_Models
…上記のリストに挙げられた研究者の中で、マルクス経済学の陣営に属しているのは、私の認識している限りでは、
オーストラリアのマルクス経済学者スティーブン・キーン(Stephen Keen)ただ 一人である。キーンがきわめて
鋭利なマルクス経済学者であることは、かれの良く知られたブログを見れば明らかである。
https://twitter.com/5chan_nel (5ch newer account)
2008年金融危機を予想した12人
１Dean Baker, US
２Wynne Godley, US
“No One Saw This Coming” Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models Dirk J Bezemer* University of Groningen 2011
http://www.heterodoxnews.com/htnf/htn85/No%20one%20saw%20this%20coming.pdf
３Fred Harrison, UK
４Michael Hudson, US
http://www.americasbubbleeconomy.com/index.php?s=itulip
５Eric Janszen, US
６Stephen Keen, Australia
Keen, S. and B. Chapman (2006) Hic Rhodus, Hic Salta! Profit in a dynamic model of the Monetary Circuit, Storia del Pensiero Economico 2: 139-156
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241384723_Hic_Rhodus_Hic_Salta_Profit_in_a_dynamic_model_of_the_Monetary_Circuit
スティーヴ・キーン は『次なる金融危機』2018の著者
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4000612670
７Jakob Brøchner Madsen &
８Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Denmark
９Kurt Richebächer, US
１０Nouriel Roubini, US
１１Peter Schiff , US Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse. 2007
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B00D56BAEQ/
１２Robert Shiller , US 「根拠なき熱狂」 (Irrational Exuberance')
第2版序文2005は邦訳2001に未所収。
高田はミンスキーに言及するがミンスキーに影響を与えたカレツキには触れない
カレツキはマルクスの影響を受けている
上のリストではゴドリーがカレツキに触れている
ウェイン・ゴドリー 危機をモデル化した経済学者【MMTの先駆者シリーズ＠道草】 – 道草
MMTの主導者の一人ウォーレン・モズラーのヒーローがウェイン・ゴドリーらしいが
ゴドリーがMMTを唱えたわけではない
誰が 経済危機を 予想したのか
…金融恐慌勃発からまだ日が浅い2008年11月、ロンドン大学で開催された経済学者の集まりに出席したエリザベス英女王は、君主にふさわしい率直さで、「なぜあなた方の誰もこの危機に気付かなかったのですか」と尋ねた。これに対して、出席した経済学者の誰一人、女王が納得できる説明を即座に与えることができなかった。 しかし、これほどの経済危機の接近を文字通り世界の経済学者の誰一人予測できなかった、あるいは、危機に先立って、経済学者の間から何一つ傾聴に値する警告が発せられなかったと言明するのは、いうまでもなく正確ではない。世界の数多い経済学者の中には、鋭い現実感覚と洞察力を備え、危機の接近に警鐘を鳴らした若干の人たちがもちろん存在した。 危機の比較的早い段階で、経済学者の予測の実績を詳しく調査した Bezemer(2009)によれば、2001 年以降、米国の 住宅バブルの大規模な崩壊の危険性を指摘する声が経済学者や経済ジャーナリストの間で上がり始めたが、2007年から 2010の 間にバブル崩壊とそれに伴う景気後退が予想されることを何らかの論拠とデータを示して指摘した人物として、11 人が挙げられている。ただし、これらの内1件は 2名の 共同論文として公表されたもので、これを2名と 数えると名、人名の合計は12人になるBezemer。
Bezemer(2009)
…上記のリストに挙げられた研究者の中で、マルクス経済学の陣営に属しているのは、私の認識している限りでは、オーストラリアのマルクス経済学者スティーブン・キーン(Stephen Keen)ただ 一人である。キーンがきわめて鋭利なマルクス経済学者であることは、かれの良く知られたブログを見れば明らかである。
１Dean Baker, US
２Wynne Godley, US
“No One Saw This Coming” Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models Dirk J Bezemer* University of Groningen 2011
３Fred Harrison, UK
４Michael Hudson, US
http://www.americasbubbleeconomy.com/index.php?s=itulip
５Eric Janszen, US
６Stephen Keen, Australia
Keen, S. and B. Chapman (2006) Hic Rhodus, Hic Salta! Profit in a dynamic model of the Monetary Circuit, Storia del Pensiero Economico 2: 139-156
スティーヴ・キーン は『次なる金融危機』2018の著者
７Jakob Brøchner Madsen &
８Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Denmark
９Kurt Richebächer, US
１０Nouriel Roubini, US
１１Peter Schiff , US Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse. 2007
１２Robert Shiller , US 「根拠なき熱狂」 (Irrational Exuberance')
第2版序文2005は邦訳2001に未所収。
次なる金融危機 単行本（ソフトカバー） – 2018/5/26
Anticipations of the Housing Crisis and Recession
日本語紹介
http://takuyoshi.sakura.ne.jp/index.php?plugin=attach&refer=%E3%83%90%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E3%83%8A%E3%
Table 1: Anticipations of the Housing Crisis and Recession
Dean Baker, US
Wynne Godley, US
Fred Harrison, UK
Michael Hudson, US
Eric Janszen, US
Stephen Keen, Australia
Jakob Brøchner Madsen &
Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Denmark
Kurt Richebächer, US
Nouriel Roubini, US
Peter Schiff , US
Robert Shiller , US
Dean Baker, US
“ …plunging housing investment will likely push the economy into recession.” (2006)
Wynne Godley, US
“The small slowdown in the rate at which US household debt levels are rising resulting form the house price decline, will immediately lead to a …sustained growth recession … before 2010”. (2006). “Unemployment [will] start to rise significantly and does not come down again.” (2007)
Fred Harrison, UK
“The next property market tipping point is due at end of 2007 or early 2008 …The only way prices can be brought back to affordable levels is a slump or recession” (2005).
Michael Hudson, US
“Debt deflation will shrink the “real” economy, drive down real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse.” (2006)
Hdson (2006a) Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation. In: L. Randall Wray and Matthew Forstater, eds., Money, Financial Instability and Stabilization Policy Edward Elgar, 2006:104-24. Graph also reproduced at http://www.americasbubbleeconomy.com/index.php?s=itulip .
Eric Janszen, US
“The US will enter a recession within years” (2006). “US stock markets are likely to begin in 2008 to experience a “Debt Deflation Bear Market” (2007)
Stephen Keen, Australia
“Long before we manage to reverse the current rise in debt, the economy will be in a recession. On current data, we may already be in one.” (2006)
Keen, S. and B. Chapman (2006) Hic Rhodus, Hic Salta! Profit in a dynamic model of the Monetary Circuit, Storia del Pensiero Economico 2: 139-156
同著者別論
次なる金融危機 単行本（ソフトカバー） – 2018/5/26
Jakob Brøchner Madsen &
Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Denmark
“We are seeing large bubbles and if they bust, there is no backup. The outlook is very bad” (2005)” The bursting of this housing bubble will have a severe impact on the world economy and may even result in a recession” (2006).
Kurt Richebächer, US
“The new housing bubble – together with the bond and stock bubbles – will invariably implode in the foreseeable future, plunging the U.S. economy into a protracted, deep recession” (2001).
“A recession and bear market in asset prices are inevitable for the U.S. economy… All remaining questions pertain solely to speed, depth and duration of the economy’s downturn.” (2006)☆☆
Nouriel Roubini, US
“Real home prices are likely to fall at least 30% over the next 3 years“(2005). “By itself this house price slump is enough to trigger a US recession.” (2006)
Peter Schiff , US
“[t]he United States economy is like the Titanic ...I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States.” (2006). “There will be an economic collapse” (2007).
early 2007 book Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse.
Robert Shiller , US
“[F]urther rises in the [stock and housing] markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines… A long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession. (2005)
第2版序文より
The issues that are treated in this book are serious, and of continuing relevance today. People in much of the world are still overconfident that the stock market, and in many places the housing market, will do extremely well, and this overconfidence can lead to instability. Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession. This extreme outcome—like the situation in Japan since 1990 writ large—is not inevitable, but it is a much more serious risk than is widely acknowledged. Lest raising these possibilities seem alarmist, one should note that we are already living with some
Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller Princeton University Press, Second Edition, 2005 http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/
ロバート・シラー（Robert James Shiller、1946年3月29日 - ）は、デトロイト出身のアメリカ合衆国の経済学者。イェール大学教授。専攻は金融経済学、行動経済学。著書「根拠なき熱狂」 (Irrational Exuberance') で知られる。2013年にノーベル経済学賞を受賞。
ITバブルの崩壊やサブプライム危機へ警鐘を鳴らしたことで知られる☆。
☆
シラー教授､アベノミクスを語るノーベル経済学賞学者の視点
Note: for sources and more detail, please refer to the Appendix. 
Hudson (2006b) The Road to Serfdom: An Illustrated Guide to the Coming Real Estate Collapse, Harper’s Magazine, April 2006
☆☆
Kurt Richebächer (1918-2007) wrote one of the longest-standing investment newsletters, “The Richebächer Letter,” which at various times also circulated as “Currencies & Credit Markets.” Richebächer was chief economist for Dresdner Bank from 1964 and moved into private consultancy in 1977. He warned against the bubble in technology stocks in the late ’90s. After its collapse, he warned against the bubble in housing, writing in September 2001: “the new housing boom is another rapidly inflating asset bubble financed by the same loose money practices that fuelled the stock market bubble.” He went on to predict “that the housing bubble – together with the bond and stock bubbles – will invariably implode in the foreseeable future, plunging the U.S. economy into a protracted, deep recession.” (Bonner 2007). Writing in 2006, Richebächer held that “the recovery of the U.S. economy since November 2001 has been dominated by an unprecedented consumer borrowing-and-spendingbinge. …”wealth creation” though soaring asset prices has been driven by ultra-cheap and loose money and credit, and not by saving and investment…” Richebächer (2006a:4). Just before the turning of the US housing market in summer 2006, Richebächer (2006a:4) in July 2006 commented that “[t]he one thing that still separates the U.S. economy from economic and financial disaster is rising house prices that apparently justify ever more credit and debt”… “Given this precarious income situation on the one hand and the debt explosion on the other, it will be clear that in the foreseeable future there will be heavy selling of houses, with prices crashing for lack of buyers” (Richebächer, 2006a:11). As this prospect began to materialize in the next month, Richebächer wrote in his August 2006 newsletter that “a recession and bear market in asset prices are inevitable for the U.S. economy. … This will not be a garden-variety recession, in which monetary easing unleashes pent-up demand, as it used to do in past business cycles”. He again emphasized its cause: “the great trouble for the future is that the credit bubble has its other side in exponential debt growth” … “The U.S. liquidity deluge of the last few years has had one single source: borrowing against rising assets backed by the Fed’s monetary looseness… all hinging on further rises in asset prices. But they are going to plunge” (Richebächer, 2006b:1,5,9,11-12). And in September 2006 he wrote hat “housing bubbles, when bursting, generally do considerable damage to the economy. Today, they are bound to do far more damage….” (Richebächer, 2006c:4). The question was not if, but “how fast the U.S. economy and its asset markets will turn down. … “There is no question that the U.S. housing bubble is finished. All remaining questions pertain solely to speed, depth and duration of the economy’s downturn” (Richebächer, 2006c:9).
…
Nouriel Roubini is Professor of Economics and International Business at the Stern School of Business, New York University, Research Associate at the NBER and Research Fellow with the CEPR. He is a former advisor to the U.S. Treasury Department and former member White House Council of Economic Advisers. He runs the Roubini Global Economics Monitor and a Global Economics Blog (http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini , from which all quotes below are taken). He predicted in summer 2005 that real home prices were likely to fall at least 30% over the next 3 years, and published warnings about the recessionary implications from the very beginning of the house price decline. On August 23, 2006, he wrote that “[b]y itself this [house price] slump is enough to trigger a US recession”. On August 30, he wrote that “[t]he recent increased financial problems of … sub-prime lending institutions may thus be the proverbial canary in the mine – or tip of the iceberg – and signal the more severe financial distress that many housing lenders will face when the current housing slump turns into a broader and uglier housing bust that will be associated with a broader economic recession. You can then have millions of households with falling wealth, reduced real incomes and lost jobs…” In a Nov 17, 2006 blog he analysed that “the housing recession is now becoming a construction recession; and the construction recession is now turning into a clear auto and manufacturing recession; and the manufacturing recession will soon turn into a retail recession as squeezed households – facing falling home prices and rising mortgage servicing costs – sharply contract their rate of consumption.” He correctly predicted that quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve would lead to a short lived stock rally at the end of 2006, turning into a share price plunge once a coming recession was obvious towards mid 2007. Through 2006 and 2007, Roubini continued warning of further house price falls (where others saw it bottoming out), and of its systemic implications leading to recession in 2007.
ヌリエル・ルビーニ(英語: Nouriel Roubini 1958年3月29日 - )はアメリカ合衆国の経済学者。ニューヨーク大学の教授である。
https://nam-students.blogspot.com/2019/04/nouriel-roubini-1958.html
Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance
“A succinct, lucid and compelling account of the causes and consequences of the great meltdown of 2008”—Michiko Kakutani, The New York Times
“A rigorous yet highly readable look at why booms and busts occur and how to keep them from wreaking havoc on the real economy”—Bloomberg
“A rigorous yet highly readable look at why booms and busts occur and how to keep them from wreaking havoc on the real economy.—Bloomberg
“An impressive, timely argument on behalf of transparency and stability for a financial system conspicuously lacking both.”—Kirkus Reviews
https://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B004Y4WMHW/
ルビーニは以下にも寄稿
https://www.amazon.co.jp/What-Have-We-Learned-Macroeconomic-ebook/dp/B00KANKAUW/
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿