フィッシャー効果：再考

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　（ 経済学、リンク::::::::::）：

NAMs出版プロジェクト: 複利(Compound interest )と フィッシャー利子論

http://nam-students.blogspot.jp/2017/06/compound-interest.html

ゲゼル：減価式貨幣と世界通貨案 1914
http://nam-students.blogspot.jp/2011/12/blog-post_4033.html?m=0
 Irving Fisher: Stamp Scrip; 1933 ：スタンプ通貨  アーヴィング・フィッシャー (著)
http://nam-students.blogspot.jp/2015/12/irving-fisher-stamp-scrip-1933-2016331.html

モーリス・アレ：世代重複モデル（OLG:overlapping generations model）再考

http://nam-students.blogspot.jp/2016/03/qlgoverlapping-generations-model.html
世代重複モデル：再考
http://nam-students.blogspot.com/2018/10/overlappinggenerationsmodel.html

「商人が昼寝しているところを襲った」“caught merchants napping.’’インフレ。フィッシャー効果(利子論)の反例：

The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation  Robert B. Barsky

Issued in May 1986

https://www.nber.org/papers/w1927.pdf

マンキューマクロ1-164~5頁

19世紀後半から20世紀初頭は名目利子率は高いがインフレ率は高くない

フィッシャーが困惑した

Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative
Robert B. Barsky, Lutz Kilian
Chapter in NBER book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16 (2002), Ben S. Bernanke and Kenneth Rogoff, editors (p. 137 - 198)
Conference held April 20-21, 2001
Published in January 2002 by MIT Press
https://www.nber.org/chapters/c11065.pdf

マンキューが挙げた参考文献Barskyにはフィッシャーの発言はない？

元発言は、Fisher, I. (1906). The Rate of Interest. New York: MacMillan.

This price equation is the source of the inflation persistence in our model. Equation (la) is very much in the spirit of Irving Fisher's (1906) reference to an earlier monetary expansion that "caught merchants nap- ping." Its motivation is closer to that of the Lucas supply schedule (see Lucas, 1972, 1973) than to that of sticky-price models. Agents are always free to adjust prices without paying "menu costs." Moreover, by the choice of appropriate time-varying weights wt, our inflation equation may allow for the fact that agents learn more quickly about some shifts in policy than about others. For expository purposes, however, we postu- late that these weights evolve exogenously.
　 The second building block of the model is the equation …
p.144
Lucas, R. E. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory 4:103-124.
－ . (1973). Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs. American Economic Review 63:326-334.

Fisher, I. (1906). The Rate of Interest. New York: MacMillan.

https://socialsciences.mcmaster.ca/econ/ugcm/3ll3/fisher/RateofInterest.pdf

The second possible reason that commodity-interest and money-interest vary inversely during price-movements is that these movements are often imperfectly foreseen. The high or low rate in commodities is then an abnormal phenomenon. It is, as it were, a trick played by money on those who put too much faith in its stability. Thus, during 1898-1905 the increase of prices in the United States is known to have been due largely to the in- crease of gold production. There is no evidence that commodities were getting scarce and incomes decreasing, but rather the reverse. There seems, therefore, no reason which would justify the low commodity-rate of interest of 1.8 per cent. which we found to have been virtually paid during that period. This low rate must, in all probability, have been due to inadvertence. The inrushing streams of gold caught merchants napping. They should have stemmed the tide by putting up interest, not only to 4.6 per cent., as they did, but two or three per cent. higher. 

p.278

google翻訳

物価と貨幣の利子が価格変動の間に逆に変動する2番目の考えられる理由は、これらの変動がしばしば不完全に予測されることです。 その場合、商品の高値または安値は異常な現象です。 それは、それがそうであったように、その安定性にあまりにも多くの信仰を置く人々にお金によって演じられるトリックです。 このように、1898年から1905年の間に米国の価格が上昇したのは、主に金の生産量の増加によるものであることが知られています。 商品が不足して収入が減少しているという証拠はありませんが、むしろその逆です。 したがって、1.8％という低い商品金利を正当化できる理由はないようです。 その期間中に実質的に支払われたことがわかりました。 この低率は、おそらく、不注意によるものであるはずです。 急増する金の流れが商人が昼寝をするのを捕まえた。 彼らは、彼らがしたように、4.6パーセントだけでなく、2パーセントまたは3パーセントに興味を起こさせることによって、潮を止めたはずです。 高いです。

4-4: INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES - STUDFILES

studfiles.net/preview/2100203/page:29/

The Fisher equation then tells us to add the real interest rate and the inflation rate together to determine the nominal interest .... He suggested that inflation “caught merchants napping.''.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001 - 144 ページ

https://books.google.co.jp/books?isbn...

Ben S. Bernanke, Kenneth Rogoff - 2002 - プレビュー - 他の版

Equation (1a) is very much in the spirit of Irving Fisher's (1906) reference to an earlier monetary expansion that "caught merchants napping." Its motivation is closer to that of the Lucas supply schedule (see Lucas, 1972, 1973) than to that of sticky-price models. Agents are always free to adjust prices without paying "menu  ...

A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s

https://books.google.co.jp/books?id...

Robert B. Barsky, Lutz Kilian - 2000 - スニペット表示 - 他の版

Equation ( 1 a) is very much in the spirit of Irving Fisher's (1906) reference to an earlier monetary expansion that "caught merchants napping". Its motivation is closer to that of the Lucas supply schedule (see Lucas 1 972, 1 973) than to that of ...

NBER Working Paper Series - 8 ページ

https://books.google.co.jp/books?id...

2000 - スニペット表示 - 他の版

Equation (la) is very much in the spirit of Irving Fisher' s ( 1 906) reference to an earlier monetary expansion that "caught merchants napping". Its motivation is closer to that of the Lucas supply schedule (see Lucas 1972, 1973) than to that of  ...

The Rate of Interest: Its Nature, Determination and Relation to ...

https://books.google.co.jp/books?id...

Irving Fisher - 1907 - スニペット表示 - 他の版

Irving Fisher. usually varies inversely with the rate reckoned in money. For 1853- 1857, money interest was 5.3 per cent., and for 1874-1879, 2.7 per cent. ; but commodity-interest for ... The inrushing streams of gold caught merchants napping.

フィッシャーの利子論は複利を重大視しない

長期的な問題とはいえマルサスの人口増加より緊急課題なのに

付録で言及されるが…＊

ここにフィッシャーの甘さがある

（ただし後にフィッシャーはゲゼルを評価するようになる）