月曜日, 6月 10, 2019

tobin hot potato 1963




tobin 1963
https://nam-students.blogspot.com/2019/06/tobin1963.html


COMMERCIAL BANKS AS CREATORS OF 'MONEY' - ECONPAPERS


econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:159
By James Tobin; Commercial Banks as Creators of 'Money' ... Date: 1963. Note: CFP 205. References: Add references ...

Commercial Banks as Creators of 'Money'

Date: 1963
Note: CFP 205.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (40) Track citations by RSS feed
Published in Dean Carson, ed., Banking and Monetary Studies, for the Comptroller of the Currency, U.S. Treasury, Richard D. Irwin, 1963, pp. 408-419


MMTerのミッチェルもTobinのfountain pen moneyに言及/“Teaching macroeconomics students the facts” W Mitchell 2010 http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=9574  #経論 #経論MMT


Anyway, I also mentioned to the person that I had just that morning been reading a rarely cited 1963 paper Commercial Banks as Creators of “Money” – by Nobel Prize winning economist (the late) James Tobin. I had read it a long-time ago while I was doing my PhD and was alerted to it again by one of the regular billy blog readers (thanks Jeff).
The article considers the money multiplier by juxtaposing the “Old View” and the “New View” of banking. I went back into my database to see the notes I took when I read the article originally (in 1983!). It is quite amazing that articles like this get lost in the mainstream literature. Despite obvious flaws they categorically demonstrate that the material that is presented in macroeconomics textbooks and which students subsequently take away from their studies as “truth” is typically misleading and often totally wrong.
Tobin begins:
Perhaps the greatest moment of triumph for the elementary economics teacher is his exposition of the multiple creation of bank and credit deposits. Before the admiring eyes of freshmen he puts to rout the practical banker who is so sure he “lends only the money depositors entrust to him.” … [in fact] … depositors entrust to bankers whatever amounts the bankers lend … [for] … the banking system as a whole …. a long line of financial heretics have been right in speaking of “fountain pen money” – money created by the stroke of the bank president’s pen when he approves a loan and credits the proceeds to the borrower’s checking account.

James Tobin (March 5, 1918 – March 11, 2002) 
 トービンのq(1963,1968)、トービン税(1974,1978)で知られる。

CONLIS FOUMDATION POR КESEARCH II всомIсS

АT YALE UNIVERSITY

Вох 2125, Yale Station

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сАrculated to stimulate discussion and criticаl coment.

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edgent by а writer that he has accева to such unpubllshed

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СоммRсLAL BANKS AS CRЕАТОRS OF "MОNEY"

Jвmes Tobia

July 24, 1963




Commercial Banks as Creators of "Money"

James Tobin

I.

THE OLD VIEW

Perhaps the greatest moment of triumph for the elementary economics

teacher is his exposition of the multiple creation of bank credit and bank

deposits

Before the admiring eyes of freshmen he puts to rout the

practical banker who is so sure that he "lends only the money depositors

entrust to him.'

The banker is shown to have a worm's eye's view, and his

error stands as an introductory object lesson in the fallacy of composition.

From the 0lympian vantage of the teacher and the textbook it appears that

the banker's dictum must be reversed: depositors entrust to bankers what-

ever amounts the bankers lend.

To be sure, this is not true of a

single

bank one bank's loan may wind up as another bank's depoait. But it is,

the arithmetic of successive rounds of deposit creation makes clear, true

Whatever their other errors

of the banking system as a whole.

a long line

of financial heretics have been right in speaking of "fountain pen money,

money created by the stroke of the bank president's pen when he approves a

loan and credits the proceeds to the borrower's checking account.

In this time-honored exposition two characteristics of commercial

banksboth of which are alleged to differentiate them sharply from other

financial intermediaries--are intertwined.

One is that their liabilities,

well at least their demand deposit liabilities--serve as widely acceptable


2

means of payment. Thus they count, along with coin and currency in public

"money.

The other is that the preferences of the public

circulation,

normally play no role in determining the total volume of deposits or the

total quantity of money. For it is the beginning of wisdom in monetary

economics to observe that money is like the "hot potato" of a children's

game one individual may pass it to another, but the group as a whole cannot

If the economy and the supply of money are out of adjustment,

get rid of it.

This is as true, evidently of

it is the economy that must do the adjusting.

money created by bankers' fountain pens as of money created by public print-

On the other hand, financial intermediaries other than banks

ing presses.

do not create money, and the scale of their assets is limited by their

liabilities, i.e., by the savings the public entrusts to them. They cannot

11

count on receiving "deposits" to match every extension of their lending.

The commercial banks and only the conmercial banks, in other words,

And because they possess this key to unlimited

possess the widow's cruse.

Once this is

expansion, they have to be restrained by reserve requirements.

done, determination of the aggregate volume of bank deposits is just a

matter of accounting and arithmetic: simply divide the available supply of

bank reserves by the required reserve ratio.

The foregoing is admittedly a caricature, but I believe it is not a

great exaggeration of the impressions conveyed by economics teaching con-

cerning the roles of commercial banks and other financial institutions in

the monetary system.

In conveying this melange of propositions, economics

has replaced the naive fallacy of composition of the banker with other half-


3

truths perhaps equally misleading. These have their root in the mystique of

"money"--the tradition of distinguishing sharply between those assets which

are and those which are not "money,

" and accordingly between those institu-

tions which emit "money" and those whose liabilities are not "money.

The

persistent strength of this tradition is remarkable given the uncertainty

and controversy over where to draw the dividing line between money and other

Time was when only currency was regarded

assets

as money, and the use of

bank deposits

was regarded as a way of economizing currency and increasing

the velocity of money.

Today scholars and statisticians wonder and argue

whether to count commercial bank time and savings deposits in the money

supplya And if so, why not similar accounts in other institutions? Never-

theless, once the arbitrary line is drawn, assets on the money side of the

line are assumed to possess to the full properties which assets on the other

side completely lack

For example, an eminent monetary economist, more

candid than many of his colleagues, admits that we don't really know what

money is, but proceeds to argue that, whatever it is, its supply should grow

regularly at a rate of the order of 3 to 4 per cent per year.

*E. S. Shaw, "Money Supply and Stable Economic Growth," in United

States Monetary Policy, American Assembly, New York, 1958, pp. 49-71.

II

THE "NEW VIEW"

A more recent development in monetary economics tends to blur the

sharp traditional distinctions between money and other assets and between

commercial banks and other financial intermediaries; to focus on demands

for and supplies of the whole spectrum of assets rather than on the quantity

and velocity of "money"; and to regard the structure of interest rates,

asset yields, and credit availabilities rather than the quantity of money as

the linkage between monetary and financial institutions and policies on the

one hand and the real economy on the other.*

In this essay I propose to look

*For a review of this development and for references to its pro-

see Harry Johnson's survey article, "Monetary Theory and Policy,'

I will confine myself

20

tagonists,

American Economic Review, LII, June 1962, pp. 335-384.

to mentioning the importance, in originating and contributing to the "new

view," of John Gurley and E. S. Shaw (yes, the very same Shaw cited in the

previous footnote, but presumably in a different incarnation). Their view-

point is summarized in Money in a

Institution, 1960.

Theory of Finance, Washington, Brookings

briefly at

'new view" for the theory of deposit

implications of this

creation, of which I have above described or caricatured the traditional

version

One of the incidental advantages of this theoretical development

is to effect something of a reconciliation between the economics teacher and

the practical banker.

According to the

'new view," the essential function of financial inter-

mediaries, including commercial banks, is to satisfy simultaneously the port-

folio preferences of two types of individuals or firms.**

On one side are

**This paragraph and the three following are adapted with minor

changes from the author's paper with William Brainard, "Financial Intermedi-

aries and the Effectiveneas of Monetary Controls," American Economic Review

LII, May 1963, pp. 384-386.

borrowers, who wish to expand their holdings of real assets--inventories,

residential real estate, productive plant and equipment, etc.--beyond the

5

limits of their own net worth.

On the other side are lenders, who wish to

hold part or all of their net worth in assets of stable money value with

negligible risk of default.

The assets of financial intermediaries are

obligations of the borrowers--promissory notes, bonds, mortgages.

The

liabilities of financial intermediaries are the assets of the lenders--bank

deposits, insurance policies, pension rights.

Financial intermediaries typically assume liabilities of smaller de-

fault risk and greater predictability of value than their assets.

The

principal kinds of institutions take on liabilities of greater liquidity

too; thus bank depositors can require payment

on demand, while bank loans

become due only on specified dates.

The reasons that the intermediation of

financial institutions can accomplish these transformations between the

nature of the obligation of the borrower and the ature of the asset of the

ultimate lender are these:

(1) administrative economy and expertise in

negotiating, accounting, appraising, and collecting; (2) reduction of risk

per dollar of lending by the pooling of independent risks, with respect both

to loan default and to deposit withdrawal; (3) governmental guarantees of

the liabilities of the institutions and other provisions (bank examination,

investment regulations, supervision of insurance companies, last-resort

lending) designed to assure the solvency and liquidity of the inst:itutions.

For these reasons, intermediation permits borrowers who wish to ex-

pand their investments in real assets to be accommodated at lower rates and

easier terms than if they had to borrow directly from the lenders.

If the

creditors of financial intermediaries had to hold instead the kinds of

6

obligations that private borrowers are capable of providing, they would cer-

tainly insist on higher rates and stricter terms.

Therefore, any autonomous

increase--for example, improvements in the efficiency of financial institu-

tions or the creation of new types of intermediaries--in the amount of

financial intermediation in the economy can be expected to be, ceteris

paribus

This is true whether the growth occurs

an expansionary influence.

in intermediaries with monetary liabilities--i.e., commercial banks--or in

other intermediaries.

Financial institutions fall fairly easily into distinct categories,

'intermediary" offering

each industry or

a differentiated product to its

customers, both lenders and borrowers.

From the point of view of lenders,

the obligations of the various intermediaries are more or less close, but not

perfect, substitutes.

For example, savings deposits share most of the

attributes of demand deposits; but they

are not means of payment, and the

institution has the right, seldom exercised, to require notice of withdrawal.

Similarly there is differentiation in the kinds of credit offered borrowers.

Each intermediary has its specialty--e.g., the commercial loan for banks, the

But the borrowers'

real estage mortgage for the savings-and-loan association.

market is not completely compartmentalized. The same credit instruments are

handled by more than one intermediary, and many borrowers have flexibility

Thus there is some substitutability, in the

in the type of debt they incur.

demand for credit by borrowers, between the assets of the various inter-

mediaries.*

*These features of the market structure of intermediaries, and their

implications for the supposed uniqueness of banks, have been emphasized by

on the deposit

side is analyzed by David and Charlotte Alhadeff, "The Struggle for Commer-

cial Bank Savings," Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXII, February 1958, 1-22.

An example of substitutability

Gurley and Shaw, loc. cit.


The special attention given commercial banks in economic analysis is

usually justified by the observation that, alone among intermediaries, banks

create" means of payment. This rationale is on its face far from convincing.

The meansof-payment characteristic of demand deposits is indeed a feature

differentiating bank liabilities from those of other intermediaries.

Insurance against death is equally a feature differentiating 1ife insurance

policies from the obligations of other intermediaries, including banks.

It

is not obvious that one kind of differentiation should be singled out for

Like other different:ia, the means-of-payment

special analytical treatment.

attribute has its price. Savings deposits, for example,

are perfect sub-

stitutes for demand deposits in every respect except as a medium of exchange

This advantage of checking accounts does not give banks absolute immunity

from the competition of savings banks; it is a limited advantage that can be,

at least in some part for many depositors,

overcome by differences in yield

It follows that the community's demand for bank deposits is not indefinite,

even though demand deposits do serve as means of payment.

III

THE WIDOW'S CRUSE

Neither individually nor collectively do commercial banks possess a

"widows cruse.

Quite apart from legal reserve requirements, commercial

banks are limited in scale by the same kinds of economic processes that de-

termine the aggregate size of other intermediaries.

One often cited difference between commercial banks and other inter-

mediaries must be quickly dismissed as superficial and irrelevant. This is

the fact that a bank can make a loan by "writing up" its deposit liabilities,


while a

savings and loan association, for example, cannot satisfy a mortgage

borrower by crediting him with a share account.

The association must transfer

means of payment to the borrower; its total liabilities do not rise along with

its assets.

True enough, but neither do the bank's for more than a

fleeting

moment

Borrowers do not incur debt in order to hold idle deposits, any more

than savings and loan shares.

The borrower pays out the money, and there is

of course no guarantee that any of it stays in the lending bank

Whether or

not it stays in the banking system as a whole is another question, about to

be discussed.

But the answer clearly does not depend

on the way the loan was

It depends

initially made.

on whether somewhere in the chain of transactions

initiated by the borrower's outlays are found depositors who wish to hold new

deposits equal in amount to the new loan.

Similarly, the outcome for the

savings and loan industry depends

on whether in the chain of transactions

initiated by the mortgage are found individuals who wish to acquire addition-

al savings and loan shares.

expand its assets either (a) by purchasing,

The banking system can

or

(b by lending to finance new private

lending against, existing assets; or

investment in inventories or capital goods,

buying government securities

or

(a)

financing new public deficits.

In case

no increase in private wealth

occurs in conjunction with the banks' expansion.

There is no new private

(b)

In case

saving and investment.

private saving occurs, matching

new

dollar for dollar the private investments or government deficits financed by

the banking system.

In neither case will there automatically be an increase

in savers demand for bank deposits equal to the expansion in bank assets.



9

In the second case, it is true, there is an increase in private wealth.

But even if we assume a closed economy in order to abstract from leakages of

capital abroad, the community will not ordinarily wish to put 100 per cent of

its new saving into bank deposits

Bank deposits are, after all, only about

15 per cent of total private wealth in the United States; other things equal,

savers cannot be expected greatly to exceed this proportion in allocating

new

saving

So, if all new saving is to take the form of bank deposits, other

things cannot stay equal

Specifically, the yields and other advantages of

the competing assets into which new saving would otherwise flow will have to

fall enough so that savers prefer bank deposits.

This is a fortiori true in case

a) where there is no new saving and

the generation of bank liabilities to match the assuned expansion of bank

assets entails a reshuffling of existing portfolios in favor of bank deposits.

In effect the banking system has to induce the public to swap loans and

securities for bank deposits. This can happen only if the price is right.

Clearly, then, there is at any moment a natural economic limit to the

scale of the cormmercial banking industry. Given the wealth and the asset

preferences of the community, the demand for bank deposits can increase only

if the yields of other assets fall

The fall in these yields is bound to

restrict the profitable lending and investment opportunities available to

the banks themselves.

Eventually the marginal returns on lending and invest-

ing, account taken of the risks and administrative costs involved, will not

exceed the marginal cost to the banks of attracting and holding additional

deposits. At this point the widow's cruse has run dry.


10

IV

BANKS AND OTHER INTERMEDIARIES COMPARED

In this respect the cormercial banking industry is not qualitatively

different from any other financial intermediary system.

The same process

limits the collective expansion of savings and loan associations,

or savings

banks,

or life insurance companies. At some point the returns from addition-

al loans or

security holdings are not worth the cost of obtaining the funds

from the public

There are of course some differences.

First, it may well be true

that commercial banks benefit from a larger share of additions to private

savings than other intermediaries. Second, according to modern American

commercial banks are subject to ceilings on the rates pay-

legal practice,

able to their depositors--zero in the case of demand deposits.

Unlike com-

commercial banks cannot seek funds by raising

peting financial industries,

They can and do offer other inducements to depositors, but these

rates

substitutes for interest are

imperfect and uneven in their incidence.

In

these circumstances the major readjustment of the interest rate structure

necessary to increase the relative demand for bank deposits is a decline

in other rates.

Note that either of these differences has to do with the

"money."

quality of bank deposits as

In a world without reserve requirements the preferences of depositors,

as well as those of borrowers, would be very relevant in determining the

The volume of assets and liabilities of every

volume of bank deposits.

competi

intermediary, both nonbanks and banks, would be determined in a

tive equilibrium, where the rate of interest charged borrowers by each kind

of institution just balances at the margin the rate of interest paid its

creditors.


11


Suppose that such an

equilibrium is disturbed by a shift in

savers' preferences.

At prevailing rates they decide to hold more savings

accounts and other nonbank liabilities and less demand deposits

They

transfer demand deposits to the credit of nonbank financial institutions,

providing these intermediaries with the means to seek additional earning

assets

These institutions, finding themselves able to attract more funds

from the public even with some reduction in the rates they pay, offer

better terms to borrowers and bid up the prices of existing earning assets.

Consequently commercial banks release some earning assets--they no longer

yield enough to pay the going rate on the banks' deposit liabilities.

Bank deposits decline with bank assets.

In effect, the nonbank inter-

mediaries favored by the shift in public preferences simply swap the

deposits transferred to them for a corresponding quantity of bank assets.

V.

FOUNTAIN PENS AND PRINTING PRESSES

Evidently the fountain pens of comercial bankers are essentially

different from the printing presses of governments.

Confusion results from

concluding that because bank deposits are like currency in one respect--

both serve as media of exchange--they are like currency in every respect.

Unlike governments, bankers cannot create means of payment to finance

Bank-created "money" is a

their own purchases of goods and services.

liability, which must be matched on the other side of the balance sheet.

And banks,

, as businesses, must earn money from their middlemen's role.

Once created, printing press money cannot be extinguished, except by reversal of the budget policies which led to its birth.The community



12

cannot get rid of its currency supply; the economy must adjust until it is

The "hot potato" analogy truly applies.

willingly absorbed.

For bank-

created money, however, there is an economic mechanism of extinction as

If bank deрosits are

well as creation, contraction as well as expansion.

excessive relative to public preferences, they will tend to decline; other-

wise banks will lose money.

The burden of adaptation is not placed entirely

on the rest of theе еconomy.


THE ROLE OF RESERVE REQUIREMENTS

VI.

Without reserve requirements, expansion of credit and deposits by the

commercial banking system would be limited by the availability of assets at

yields sufficient to compensate banks for the costs of attracting and hold-

ing the corresponding deposits. In a regime of reserve requirements, the

limit which they impose normally cuts the expansion short of this competi-

tive equilibrium.

When reserve requirements and deposit interest rate

ceilings are effective, the marginal yield of bank loans and investments

exceeds the marginal cost of deposits to the banking system.

In these cir-

cumstances additional reserves make it possible and profitable for banks to

acquire additional earning assets.

The expansion process lowers interest

rates generally--enough to induce the public to hold additional deposits but

ordinarily not enough to wipe out the banks' margin between the value and

cost of additional deposits.

It is the existence of this margin--not the monetary nature of bank

liabilities--which makes it possible for the economics teacher to say that

additional loans permitted by new reserves will generate their own deposits.




…   


13 -

The same proposition would be true of any other system of financial institu-

tions subject to similar reserve constraints and similar interest rate

ceilings

In this sense it is more accurate to attribute the special place of

banks among intermediaries to the legal restrictions to which banks alone are

subjected than to attribute these restrictions to the special character of

bank liabilities.

But the textbook description of multiple expansion of credit and

given reserve base is misleading

even for a regime of reserve

deposits on a

There is more to the determination of the volume of bank

requirements.

deposits than the arithmetic of reserve supplies and reserve ratios

The

redundant reserves of the thirties are a dramatic reminder that economic

opportunities sometimes prevail over reserve calculations. But the sig-

nificance of that experience is not correctly appreciated if it is regarded

as an aberration from a normal state of affairs in which banks are

simply

fully "loaned up" and total deposits

are tightly linked to the volume of

phenomenon which is

The thirties exemplify in extreme form a

reserves.

always in some degree present:

The use to which commercial banks put the

reserves made available to the system is an economic variable depending

on

lending opportunities and interest rates.

An individual bank is not constrained by any fixed quantum of reserves.

It can obtain additional reserves to meet requirements by borrowing from the

Federal Reserve, by buying "Federal Funds" from other banks, by selling or

1#

running off" short term securities

In short, reserves are available at

price

This cost the bank

the discount window and in the money market, at a







14

must compare with available yields on loans and investments.

If those yields

are low relative to the cost of reserves, the bank will seek to avoid borrow-

ing reserves and perhaps hold excess reserves instead.

If those yields are

high relative to the cost of borrowing reserves, the bank will shun excess

reserves and borrOw reserves occasionally or even

regularly. For the banking

C

system as a whole the Federal Reserve's quantitative controls determine the

supply of unborrowed reserves.

But the extent to which this supply is left

unused,

or supplemented by borrowing at the discount window, depends on the

economic circumstances confronting the banks

-on available lending opportuni-

ties and on the whole structure of interest rates from the Fed's discount

rate through the rates on mortgages and long term securities.

The range of variation in net free reserves in recent years has been

from -5 per cent to +5 per cent of required reserves.

This indicates a much

looser linkage between reserves and deposits than is suggested by the text-

book exposition of multiple expansion for a system which is always precisely

and fully "loaned up.

(It does not mean, however, that actual monetary

authorities have any less control than textbook monetary authorities.

Indeed the net free reserve position is one of their more useful instruments

and barometers

Anyway they are after bigger game than the quantity of

o

"money"

Two consequences of this analysis deserve special notice because of

their relation to the issues raised earlier in this paper. First,

an in-

crease--of, say, a billion dollars--in the supply of unborrowed reserves will,

in general, result in less than a billion dollar increase in required




15

Net free reserves will rise (algebraically) by some fraction of

reserves

the billion dollars-a very large fraction in periods like the thirties,

much smaller one in tight money periods like those of the fifties.

Loans and

deposits will expand by less than their textbook multiples. The reason is

simple. The open market operations which bring about the increased supply of

reserves tend to lower interest rates.

So do the орerations of the commer-

cial banks in trying to invest their new reserves.

The result is to

diminish the incentives of banks to keep fully loaned up or to borrow re-

serves, and to make banks content to hold on the average higher excess

reserves.

Second, depositor preferences do matter, even in a

regime of frac-

tional reserve banking.

Suppose, for example, that the public decides to

switch new or old savings from other assets and institutions into commercial

banks

This switch makes earning assets available to banks at attractive

yields--assets that otherwise would have been lodged either directly with

the public or with the competing financial institutions previously favored

with the public's savings.

These improved opportunities for profitable lend-

ing and investing will make the banks content to hold smaller net free re-

Both their deposits and their assets will rise as a result of this

serves.

shift in public preferences, even

though the base of unborrowed reserves re-

mains unchanged.

Something of this kind has occurred in recent years when

commercial banks have been permitted to raise the interest rates they offer

for time and savings deposits.




16

IIA

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The implications of the "new view" may be summarized as follows

The distinction between commercial banks and other financial inter-

mediaries has been too sharply drawn.

The differences are of degree, not of

kind

In particular, the differences which do exist have little intrinsically

2.

to do with the monetary nature of bank liabilities.

The differences are more importantly related to the special reserve re-

quirements and interest rate ceilings to which banks are subject. Any other

financial industry subject to the same kind of regulations would behave in

much the same way»

4. Commercial banks do not possess, either individually or collectively, a

widow's cruse which guarantees that any expansion of assets will generate a

corresponding expansion off deposit liabilities. Certainly this happy state

of affairs would not exist in an unregulated competitive financial world.

Marshall's scissors of supply and demand apply to the "output" of the bank-

ing industry,

no less than to other financial and nonfinancial industries.

Reserve requirements and interest ceilings give the widow's cruse myth

5.

somewhat greater plausibility. But even in these circumstances, the scale

of bank deposits and assets is affected by depositor preferences and by the

lending and investing opportunities available to banks.

I draw no policy morals from these observations.

That is quite

another story, to which analysis of the type presented here is only the

preface

The reader will misunderstand my purpose if he jumps to attribute




- 17

to me the conclusion that existing differences in the regulatory trestment of

banks and competing intermediaries should be diminished, either by relaxing

constraints on the one or by tightening controls on the other.



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バンデラ:カウボーイの都 | GoUSA

www.gousa.jp/experience/bandera-cowboy-capital-world

トレイルの終着点で私たちを待っていたものは、卵料理、ベーコン、ポテト、おいしそうなダンプリングのようなビスケットが並ぶ ...

貨幣的均衡分析と内生的貨幣供給

 

(Adobe PDF)

 

-htmlで見る

m-repo.lib.meiji.ac.jp/.../shogakuronso_75_2-3-4_141....

だの均等関係にかんするヴィクセル流のメカニズムは,現在でもトービン・モデルやブルンナー. =メルツァー・ ..... は,あたかも「ホットポテト」のごとく,財・サービス市場にスピル・オーバーしていくが,信. 用貨幣の場合には ...

https://m-repo.lib.meiji.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/10291/1918/1/shogakuronso_75_2-3-4_141.pdf



How to Play Hot Potato

https://youtu.be/qdtTjdQ0NoQ



以下は違う




https://matome.naver.jp/odai/2142689435535317601

◼︎今話題の『ポテトゲーム』ってなんだ!?

◼︎『ポテトゲーム』のルールは?

①誰か1人がポテトを2つもちます。

②持っている人は他の人にそのポテトをあげます。1人に2つあげてもいいですし、2人に一つずつあげてもいいです。

③もらった人はまた他の誰かにポテトをあげます。

④この繰り返しです!!

※2つ一緒にもらった場合は、「ポテトポテトポテト」と言う

※1つもらった場合は、「ポテトポテト」と言う

◼︎待ち時間や、暇つぶし、休み時間に最適!!

◼︎ネットでも話題に!!

ポテトゲームでばり盛り上がる(笑) なかなか難しい(笑)噛む(笑) pic.twitter.com/C9nVaiHBYw

ポテトゲームやりたい 絶対たのしいwwww


ーー


https://econ101.jp/%E3%83%9B%E3%83%83%E3%83%88%E3%83%9D%E3%83%86%E3%83%88%E5%8A%

B9%E6%9E%9C%E3%80%81%E8%AA%AC%E6%98%8E%EF%BC%81/

経済学101は主に皆様の寄付によって賄われています。温かい支援をお待ちしています

スコット・サムナー 「ホットポテト効果、説明!」

[この記事の原文:Scott Sumner, “The “hot potato effect” explained”  The Money Illusion, 2013年9月1日]


私にとってはマクロ経済学の核心である「ホットポテト効果」なのだが、これに手を焼いている人は多い。これを理解しないなら何も理解していないということなのに。人々は個人行動の水準で理解できるような説明を求める。しかしこの場合それはうまく行かない。問題の一端は、実質から名目への伝達メカニズムを考えがちなことだ。価格硬直性のある世界ではその経路が自然に見えるのだ。「ジョーはなぜ新車を買うのか?」と聞いても仕方がない。それはデッドエンドだ。

これまで私はリンゴ市場の喩えでこのホットポテト効果を説明しようとしてきたのだが、もっといい喩えがあることに気が付いた。金である。金はリンゴに比べて貨幣に似た性質が多い。もっと良いことには、かつてそれは実際に貨幣だった!

ではホットポテト効果をステップバイステップで説明して行くが、もしどこかで躓いたらその個所を教えてほしい。

1. 金が1200ドルで売られているとする。金利は低く、従って将来の予測価格はおおむね同じか少し高い状態だ。ここである企業が世界の金産出量を急増させるほどの巨大な金鉱を発見したとする。この新しい産出により金の価格は数年かけて半分に下がる。しかしそれはなぜか? まずこの金鉱が発見される前、人々はその時点の価格なら持っていたいと思っていた量の金を実際に持っていることで価格が均衡していた。新発見の金は、人々が持ちたくない「ホットポテト」のようなものとして働く。もちろん投げ捨てたりはしない。売って手放すのだ。しかしそれは個人個人の水準の話で、全体としてはそうならない(手放すことができない)ことに注意しよう。余分な金を誰かが持っている。(このことこそが代表的消費者の水準で貨幣を理解しようとしてもうまく行かない理由だ)。社会全体としてこの超過の金を処分する道は、人々が持っていたいと思う価格になるまで価格が下がっていくこと以外にない。こうして金の価格が下落して半分になったとしよう。これは金の価値が他のモノやサービスに対して半分になったことをも意味している。

2. ではこの会社が金の発見をアナウンスしただけだとしたら。ただし会社は信用できる。アナウンスによって金貨価格は急落するだろう。

3. ではこの会社が金の埋蔵をレーダーで確認し、これを掘り出すのに二年かかるだろうとアナウンスした場合。同じく金価格は直ちに下落するだろう。2の事例とほとんど同じ割合で。(ここまでは誰でも理解してくれると思う。経済学入門レベルだ。)

4. では金が会計媒体であるとして上の話を考えてみよう。どこが変わるだろうか。明らかに、金価格が急騰したりはしない。会計媒体の価格は定義により固定だから。しかし金の価値は、他のモノとサービスの価格が上昇することで急落するだろう。ここで非常に重要な相違点がある。上の1-3のケースでは金の価値はほとんど瞬時だった。今度は金(会計媒体)の価値の変化は、物価の粘着性により緩やかなものになるだろう。ただし長期的な影響は変わらない。ここまでよろしいか? とても頭が良いが最終段階では私と意見を異にする人々(ジョン・コクランのような)もここまでは意見が一致する。コクランは商品貨幣システムの議論では本質的に「マーケットマネタリスト」だと思う。

注目してほしいのは、ここまでこの変化をマクロ経済学の基本原則だけを使って説明できていることである。たとえば金利などの「伝達メカニズム」を用いる必要はない。ただ需要と供給だけ。ただし重要なことがある。物価は粘着的なので、物価水準が完全に調整されるまでの間は金市場の短期的な均衡を実現するために「他のあれこれ」が変化する。金利は明らかにこの「他のあれこれ」の一つだ。他にも資産価格の変化や実質産出の変化が「他のあれこれ」に含まれる。

しかしこれら「他のあれこれ」の要因がどんなに重要であるにせよ、ホットポテト効果こそが第一義的なのだ。金の量の増加が長期的な金の価値に影響を与えることを説明するのはホットポテト効果に他ならない。ここまだまだ経済学入門レベル。それ以外の効果は我々を最終的な均衡へと動かすのを助ける副次的効果に過ぎない。

5. いよいよ会計媒体を金から現金に置き換えよう。本質的には何も変わらない。三つのケースに分ける。

a. 金利がプラスの状態の場合: 上の金の例とちょうど同じく貨幣ベースがホットポテトになる。準備預金への付利のために事情がやや異なるが、それは読者が考えるほどのことではない。準備預金付利があってもなお、長期的な貨幣数量理論が成立することをピーター・アイルランドが示している。私の表現では次のようになる。準備金付利があってもなお、ベース貨幣の一度かつ永続的な増加は、長期的な物価水準に比例的な増加をもたらす。貨幣はどこまでも中立的だ。  T

b. 名目金利がゼロで、かつ永遠にゼロと予測されている場合。このとき公開市場操作に意味はなくなる。利子が支払われない国債は本質的に現金と等価となり、公開市場操作がただの両替と同じなる。財政政策は強力なはずだが、政府負債が小さいなら(訳者補足:名目金利が永遠にゼロと予測されるほどに小さいなら)効率的ではない。

c. 名目金利がゼロだが、将来はプラスだと予測されている場合。この場合、掘り出すのに二年かかる金の場合で論じたのと同じ理由から、貨幣ベースの永続的な増加がインフレ効果を持つ。では一時的なベースの増加だったら? 効果はほとんどない。それは金利がプラスの場合も同じだ。

6. では、現金と準備金の合計が会計媒体である場合。まったく同じだ。準備金もまたホットポテトである。実際100年前、準備金はすべて現金だった。

7. では準備金が100%会計媒体であるキャッシュレス経済を想定する。やはり同じく準備金はホットポテトだ。上で述べたように準備金金利は本質的ではない。銀行はX%の準備金金利の下でYの準備金を需要する。準備金金利をX%としたままで準備金の量を二倍にすれば、銀行は直ちに準備金を増やす。ホットポテト効果が発動! ゼロ制約? 5の例を見よ。

QED

マーケットマネタリストに開眼への列車から落ちこぼれた人はいるかな? 何人かのMMT論者は溝に落ちて頭を悩ませていると思うけれど。